Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medipal Holdings Corp stock $26.58, price $20.09, upside +32.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.05 – $20.21 · fair‑value band $22.10 – $32.25 · the $20.09 price screens below the $26.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 18, 2026.
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Medipal Holdings Corporation engages in the prescription pharmaceutical wholesale business in Japan.
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It procures healthcare products related to diagnostics, testing, treatment, and administration comprising medical equipment and medical materials, and clinical diagnostic reagents for use from the pre-symptomatic stage; handles PMS services on contract for manufacturers; and invests in orphan drugs and other products.
The company is also involved in the wholesale of cosmetics, daily necessities, and OTC pharmaceuticals; and animal health products for companion animals; and food processing raw materials for agriculture, fisheries, and livestock.
In addition, it engages in the contract-based epidemiological studies, clinical studies, etc.; creation of a computerized medical supply database and master product databases for medical facilities; life and non-life insurance agency business; cleaning management; management and operation of distribution centers; commissioned delivery and worker dispatch business; planning, management, administration, and product and service development for the class A health dispensing pharmacies service brand; and distributes specialty pharmaceuticals.
Further, the company is involved in contract logistics services; information provision services; health insurance claims review, medical coding dispatch, outsourcing and remote education; and creation of a medical supply database and master product databases for medical facilities.
It serves hospitals, clinics, dispensing pharmacies, drugstores, home centers, convenience stores, supermarkets, discount stores, animal hospitals, livestock and fish producers, and processed food manufacturers.
The company was formerly known as Mediceo Paltac Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Medipal Holdings Corporation in October 2009. Medipal Holdings Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) currently trades at $20.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.58, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $32.00 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $20.09 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.16, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.10 (bear) to $32.25 (bull), the price of $20.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥4.0T in FY2026 versus ¥3.3T in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥45.1B in FY2026, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B Mid · P/E ratio 15.5 · EPS (TTM) $1.30 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 32%, MAHLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.10Fair Value $26.58Bull$32.25
Price $20.09 · Upside +32.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4950 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.8% vs 5.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.1% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Stable cash flows backed by a clean balance sheet support this thin-margin medical distributor, yet limited durable advantage signals constrain its competitive position.
Main risk: The leadership reshuffle risks creating friction in the established wholesale network and thereby disrupting distribution operations.
MediPal Holdings installed a new president on October 1 with direct responsibility for the pharmaceutical business while the prior CEO moved to chairman. Responsibilities for distribution operations and financial strategy have been realigned just as the company advances its rare-disease therapy partnerships. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the reshuffle speed up value capture from these collaborations or create friction in the established wholesale network?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 78 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Is Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.58 versus a price of $20.09, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAHLY?
Our model-based fair value for Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is $26.58 (as of Oct 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.09.
What is the quality score of MAHLY?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.58 (as of Oct 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.10, optimistic scenario $32.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medipal Holdings Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.58, about +32% upside versus a price of $20.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.10, optimistic scenario $32.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.9T (latest available figure, as of Oct 18, 2026).
Does Medipal Holdings Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medipal Holdings Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Oct 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAHLY use?
Our models discount Medipal Holdings Corp ADR at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medipal Holdings Corp ADR that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medipal Holdings Corp ADR grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.56 %: that much free cash flow Medipal Holdings Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medipal Holdings Corp ADR it is $26.58 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026), against a price of $20.09. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medipal Holdings Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 18, 2026, MAHLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $20.09, fair value $26.58, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAHLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.58). For Medipal Holdings Corp ADR the two are $6.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medipal Holdings Corp ADR worth?
The market values Medipal Holdings Corp ADR at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 18, 2026). Per share that is $20.09; our models calculate a fair value of $26.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAHLY?
Our models span a range for Medipal Holdings Corp ADR: cautious scenario $22.10, base $26.58, optimistic $32.25 per share (as of Oct 18, 2026, price $20.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAHLY?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Oct 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (as of Oct 18, 2026): return on equity 7.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAHLY from its 52-week high?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR trades at $20.09, about 1% below its 52-week high of $20.21 and 31% above the low of $15.37 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medipal Holdings Corp ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medipal Holdings Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 18, 2026: price $20.09, calculated fair value $26.58 (+32%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAHLY calculated?
We run Medipal Holdings Corp ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Medipal Holdings Corp ADR currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $20.09. Our model-based fair value is $26.58, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medipal Holdings Corp ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Medipal Holdings Corp ADR grew +5.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The market capitalisation of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Earnings per share at Medipal Holdings Corp ADR are $1.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The dividend yield of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is 2.1% (payout 32.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The net margin of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
The operating margin of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Revenue at Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY)?
Earnings per share at Medipal Holdings Corp ADR are growing +44.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Medipal Holdings Corp (MAHLY) hold?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥290B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 18, 2026