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Data-driven stock valuation

Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.2B · ISIN US58502T1079

At a glance

MH Medipal Holdings Corp ADR logo Medipal Holdings Corp ADR MAHLY · US
Price$18.30
Fair Value$32.50
Upside+77.6%
Quality63/100

A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of $32.50.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is $32.50 per share against a price of $18.30, so the fair value sits 78% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.65% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 24 out of 100
!Weak on past: 27 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $24.97 to $39.48

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $31.50 to $32.50 (+3.2%) since Aug 28, 2026.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$19.30 $11.05 Fair Value $32.50 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.05 – $19.30 · fair‑value band $24.97 – $39.48 · the $18.30 price screens below the $32.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY) currently trades at $18.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.50, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.02 per share, and 20 of the 23 models we run sit above the $18.30 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.93, and 3 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Medipal Holdings Corp ADR generated revenue of ¥3.8T at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of ¥290B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $24.97 (bear) to $39.48 (bull), the price of $18.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 78%, MAHLY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $22.62 $27.81 $34.77 82
Growth DCF $23.01 $27.87 $34.13 80
Owner Earnings $30.74 $39.07 $50.23 78
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $22.62 $27.81 $34.77 82
Owner Earnings $30.74 $39.07 $50.23 78
5Y Revenue Exit $23.74 $31.22 $40.37 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $29.83 $41.92 $55.30 76
5Y P/E Exit $27.06 $37.06 $46.88 72
10Y Revenue Exit $22.74 $29.20 $37.02 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $26.88 $36.21 $47.52 69
10Y P/E Exit $25.20 $33.02 $41.59 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.74 $20.83 $26.45 66
PEG = 1.0 $3.20 $4.57 $5.94 57
EPV $17.35 $18.64 $19.75 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.63 $31.50 $39.38 63
P/S Multiple $18.26 $24.34 $30.43 58
P/B Multiple $18.26 $24.34 $30.43 55
EV/EBIT $32.04 $39.65 $47.26 66
EV/EBITDA $37.98 $47.57 $57.16 67
EV/Revenue $25.51 $32.49 $39.47 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.40 $13.93 $20.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $23.01 $27.87 $34.13 80
Rev-Margin DCF $23.74 $31.38 $39.40 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $16.54 $17.25 $18.02 71
ROIC Compounder $17.35 $18.64 $19.75 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $17.38 $24.83 $32.28 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($33.02) versus Asset-Based ($13.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.2
P/S ratio 0.16 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.29 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2
Dividend yield 2.7% payout 37.6%
Net margin 1.1% FY2026
Return on equity 6.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 1.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥3.8T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.8% 3y avg +6.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +28.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥42.3B FY2026
Net cash ¥290B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Medipal Holdings Corporation engages in the prescription pharmaceutical wholesale business in Japan. It procures healthcare products related to diagnostics, testing, treatment, and administration comprising medical equipment and medical materials, and clinical diagnostic reagents for use from the pre-symptomatic stage; handles PMS services on contract for …

Full company description

Medipal Holdings Corporation engages in the prescription pharmaceutical wholesale business in Japan. It procures healthcare products related to diagnostics, testing, treatment, and administration comprising medical equipment and medical materials, and clinical diagnostic reagents for use from the pre-symptomatic stage; handles PMS services on contract for manufacturers; and invests in orphan drugs and other products. The company is also involved in the wholesale of cosmetics, daily necessities, and OTC pharmaceuticals; and animal health products for companion animals; and food processing raw materials for agriculture, fisheries, and livestock. In addition, it engages in the contract-based epidemiological studies, clinical studies, etc.; creation of a computerized medical supply database and master product databases for medical facilities; life and non-life insurance agency business; cleaning management; management and operation of distribution centers; commissioned delivery and worker dispatch business; planning, management, administration, and product and service development for the class A health dispensing pharmacies service brand; and distributes specialty pharmaceuticals. Further, the company is involved in contract logistics services; information provision services; health insurance claims review, medical coding dispatch, outsourcing and remote education; and creation of a medical supply database and master product databases for medical facilities. It serves hospitals, clinics, dispensing pharmacies, drugstores, home centers, convenience stores, supermarkets, discount stores, animal hospitals, livestock and fish producers, and processed food manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Mediceo Paltac Holdings Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Medipal Holdings Corporation in October 2009. Medipal Holdings Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Medipal Holdings Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥4.0T in FY2026 versus ¥3.3T in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥45.1B in FY2026, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$4.0T
Latest YoY
+10.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+10.7%
Dividend yield2.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 10.7% vs 10Y 5.5%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.2% (2021) → 1.4% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop91% (2010) · in USD
Revenue +5.3%/yr
FY22 ¥3.3T
FY23 ¥3.4T
FY24 ¥3.6T
FY25 ¥3.7T
FY26 ¥4.0T
Net income +11.3%/yr
FY22 ¥29.4B
FY23 ¥38.8B
FY24 ¥41.5B
FY25 ¥40.3B
FY26 ¥45.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +5.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.5 %

of which total revenue +2.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %

EBIT margin +1.2 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Medipal Holdings Corp ADR · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medipal Holdings Corp ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAHLY

Peer Group

Medical Distribution · 79 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +72% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Medipal Holdings Corp ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-7.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+4.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.4 %
FCF yield on price7.32 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.7 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 30
FUTURE24 · sector 17
PAST27 · sector 22
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND53 · sector 57

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $906.77 $819.31 −10%
Cencora, Inc COR $330.97 $211.07 −36%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $247.18 $141.77 −43%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $88.46 $71.70 −19%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.37 ¥33.96 +107%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$15.69 HK$58.87 +275%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 80.85 CHF 61.79 −24%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥21.03 ¥28.65 +36%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.05 ¥9.84 +95%
Asker Healthcare Group ASKER kr 74.40 kr 28.26 −62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.50 versus a price of $18.30, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAHLY?
Our model-based fair value for Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is $32.50 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.30.
What is the quality score of MAHLY?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.50 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.97, optimistic scenario $39.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medipal Holdings Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.50, about +78% upside versus a price of $18.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.97, optimistic scenario $39.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY)?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MAHLY?
The net profit margin of Medipal Holdings Corp ADR is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Medipal Holdings Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Medipal Holdings Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medipal Holdings Corp ADR (MAHLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medipal Holdings Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAHLY use?
Our models discount Medipal Holdings Corp ADR at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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