Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Marfrig Global Foods SA BRL 7.42, price BRL 16.83, upside -55.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$4.68 – R$25.60 · fair‑value band R$5.19 – R$15.90 · the R$16.83 price screens above the R$7.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MBRF Global Foods Company S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the food industry in Brazil and internationally. It operates through Beef North America, Beef South America, and BRF segments.
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MBRF Global Foods Company S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the food industry in Brazil and internationally. It operates through Beef North America, Beef South America, and BRF segments. The company produces, processes, distributes, and sells animal-based proteins, such as beef, pork, lamb, fish, and poultry; pasta, margarine, vegetable, pet food, and plant-based proteins; processed hamburgers; and various ready-to-eat products. It also engages in leather industrialization; trading activities; transportation; transportation leasing; energy generation, trading, and related services; processing, sale, distribution, and retail of animal feed and nutritional products; road freight; manufacture, distribution, and marketing of pet food products; and processing of canned meats and other processed products. In addition, the company provides administrative and marketing services, logistics services, and consulting services. It imports, sells, and exports its products to restaurant and supermarket chains, and homes. The company sells its products under the Sadia, Sadia Bassi, Perdigão, Perdigão Montana, Perdigão Na Brasa, Qualy, Claybom, Deline, Banvit, Paty, and Quickfood brands. MBRF Global Foods Company S.A. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) currently trades at R$16.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$7.42, implying the stock looks roughly 126.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$42.08 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$16.83 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$2.48, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$5.19 (bear) to R$15.90 (bull), the price of R$16.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Marfrig Global Foods SA reported revenue of R$164B in FY2025 versus R$85.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$358M in FY2025, compounding −46.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$20.8B (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 51.0 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) R$0.3300 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −56%, MBRF3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$5.19Fair Value R$7.42Bull R$15.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
’14
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’16
’17
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’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (5 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Marfrig Global Foods SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)16.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)51.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.35× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.82× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marfrig Global Foods SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBRF3
Frequently asked questions
Is Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$7.42 versus a price of R$16.83, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBRF3?
Our model-based fair value for Marfrig Global Foods SA is R$7.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$16.83.
What is the quality score of MBRF3?
Marfrig Global Foods SA has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$7.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.19, optimistic scenario R$15.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marfrig Global Foods SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$7.42, about −56% upside versus a price of R$16.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$5.19, optimistic scenario R$15.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Marfrig Global Foods SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$164B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marfrig Global Foods SA would have to grow free cash flow by -4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBRF3 use?
Our models discount Marfrig Global Foods SA at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marfrig Global Foods SA that is -4.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marfrig Global Foods SA grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies -4.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marfrig Global Foods SA (-4.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.74 %: that much free cash flow Marfrig Global Foods SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marfrig Global Foods SA it is R$7.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$16.83. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marfrig Global Foods SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MBRF3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$16.83, fair value R$7.42, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBRF3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$16.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$7.42). For Marfrig Global Foods SA the two are R$9.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marfrig Global Foods SA worth?
The market values Marfrig Global Foods SA at about R$20.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$16.83; our models calculate a fair value of R$7.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBRF3?
Our models span a range for Marfrig Global Foods SA: cautious scenario R$5.19, base R$7.42, optimistic R$15.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$16.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBRF3?
Marfrig Global Foods SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$7.42 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 48.4 (reported for FY2025: 66.2). Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 0.4, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MBRF3?
The PEG ratio of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marfrig Global Foods SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 4.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBRF3 from its 52-week high?
Marfrig Global Foods SA trades at R$16.83, about 34% below its 52-week high of R$25.60 and 16% above the low of R$14.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$7.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marfrig Global Foods SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marfrig Global Foods SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$16.83, calculated fair value R$7.42 (−56%), Quality Score 31/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBRF3 calculated?
We run Marfrig Global Foods SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$7.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Marfrig Global Foods SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R$16.83. Our model-based fair value is R$7.42, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marfrig Global Foods SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$15.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (R$5.19 to R$15.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Marfrig Global Foods SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The market capitalisation of Marfrig Global Foods SA is R$20.8B (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Earnings per share at Marfrig Global Foods SA are R$0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The net margin of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
The operating margin of Marfrig Global Foods SA is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Revenue at Marfrig Global Foods SA is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3)?
Earnings per share at Marfrig Global Foods SA are growing −21.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marfrig Global Foods SA (MBRF3) carry?
The net debt of Marfrig Global Foods SA is R$69.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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