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MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MBX Biosciences, Inc. $7.59, price $57.89, upside -86.9%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US55287L1017

MB MBX Biosciences, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

MBX Biosciences, Inc.

MBX · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $7.59 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 25/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 8/100
✓Insider activity 66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$70.70 $5.79 Fair Value $7.59 Sep 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

24‑month range $5.79 – $70.70 · fair‑value band $5.01 – $9.49 · the $57.89 price screens above the $7.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MBX Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and metabolic disorders.

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MBX Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and metabolic disorders. Its lead product candidate is Canvuparatide (MBX 2109), a parathyroid hormone peptide prodrug, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism. The company is also developing Imapextide (MBX 1416), a long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor antagonist that is in Phase 2 clinical trial a potential therapy for post-bariatric hypoglycemia, a chronic complication of bariatric surgery. In addition, it is developing MBX 4291, a lead obesity product candidate, which is in investigational new drug-enabling studies for the treatment of obesity and co-morbidities. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Carmel, Indiana.

Stock analysis

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock (MBX) currently trades at $57.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.59, implying the stock looks roughly 662.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $5.01 (bear) to $9.49 (bull), the price of $57.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$87.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B · EPS (TTM) $−2.39 · Return on equity −33.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.1% · Free cash flow −$81.9M · Net cash $74.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 338% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −87%, MBX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.01 Fair Value $7.59 Bull $9.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.83 $5.14 $7.67 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.83 $5.14 $7.67 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 92
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MBX screens 663% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.48× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock · Fair Value
$7.59 −663%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBX

Frequently asked questions

Is MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.59 versus a price of $57.89, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBX?
Our model-based fair value for MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock is $7.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.89.
What is the quality score of MBX?
MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $9.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.59, about −87% upside versus a price of $57.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $9.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock it is $7.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $57.89. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MBX trades above its calculated fair value: price $57.89, fair value $7.59, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.59). For MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock the two are $50.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $57.89; our models calculate a fair value of $7.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBX?
Our models span a range for MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $5.01, base $7.59, optimistic $9.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $57.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −33.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBX from its 52-week high?
MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock trades at $57.89, about 18% below its 52-week high of $70.70 and 338% above the low of $13.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $57.89, calculated fair value $7.59 (−87%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBX calculated?
We run MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $57.89. Our model-based fair value is $7.59, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($5.01 to $9.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
The market capitalisation of MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
Earnings per share at MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock are $−2.39. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock is −33.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock is −37.1% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) generate?
The free cash flow of MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock is −$81.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MBX Biosciences, Inc. (MBX) hold?
MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $74.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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