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Mercer International Inc (MERC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mercer International Inc stock $0.42, price $0.26, upside +61.5%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US · Based in Canada

MI Mercer International Inc logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Mercer International Inc

MERC · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $0.4200 · Strongly undervalued
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 19% above the price ($0.3100).
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
8.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Quality 28/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.4 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -27.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$15.34 $0.1200 Fair Value $0.4200 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1200 – $15.34 · fair‑value band $0.3100 – $0.6300 · the $0.2600 price screens below the $0.4200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Mercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and northern bleached hardwood kraft (NBHK) pulp in the United States, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Solid Wood.

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The company manufactures, sells, and distributes pulp, electricity, and chemicals through pulp mills. It also manufactures, distributes, and sells lumber, cross and glue laminated timber, finger joint lumber, wood pallets, electricity, biofuels, and wood residuals.

In addition, the company generates and sells green energy produced from biomass cogeneration power plants.

Further, it produces and sells NBSK pulp manufactured from softwood; green energy using carbon neutral biofuels, such as black liquor and wood waste; tall oil from black liquor for use as a chemical additive and green energy source; wood pellets and briquettes; lignin; and wood procurement and logistics services.

The company sells its pulp products to pulp markets, integrated paper and paperboard manufacturers; and lumber products to national and regional distributors, large construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers.

Mercer International Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Mercer International Inc (MERC) currently trades at $0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4200, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.3100 (bear) to $0.6300 (bull), the price of $0.2600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Mercer International Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$498M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $17.4M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−7.40 · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin −27.0% · Return on equity −493% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.8% · Revenue (TTM) $1.8B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 91% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at 62%, MERC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3100 Fair Value $0.4200 Bull $0.6300
Price $0.2600 · Upside +61.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.3100 $0.4200 $0.6300 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3100 $0.4200 $0.6300 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 95
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 43
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 80
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • BuyPeter R Kellogg10% owner4× since Nov 12, 2025: 1,939,743 shares, avg. $1.13$2.2MJun 12, 2026
  • BuyAlice LabergeDirector1,000 shares at $1.90$1,900Feb 25, 2026

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.5% (2020) → −9.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +61.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −24.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −27.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −8.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −3.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 8.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG 2.29× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.62 HK$7.54 +63% vs MERC
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,425 IDR 10,483 IDR +63% vs MERC
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 898.00 CLP 1,241 CLP +38% vs MERC
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.86 ¥21.06 +33% vs MERC
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.94 €24.27 +22% vs MERC
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.12 ¥16.93 +20% vs MERC
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €22.46 €21.19 −6% vs MERC
The Navigator Company NVG €3.04 €2.49 −18% vs MERC
Billerud AB BILL kr 88.20 kr 68.44 −22% vs MERC
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.66 $5.24 −46% vs MERC

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Mercer International Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercer International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MERC

Frequently asked questions

Is Mercer International Inc (MERC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4200 versus a price of $0.2600, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MERC?
Our model-based fair value for Mercer International Inc is $0.4200 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2600.
What is the quality score of MERC?
Mercer International Inc has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4200 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.6300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercer International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4200, about +62% upside versus a price of $0.2600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.6300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Mercer International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Mercer International Inc pay a dividend?
Mercer International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Mercer International Inc has a dividend yield of 8.5%. A dividend has been paid every year since 2015. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercer International Inc it is $0.4200 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $0.2600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Mercer International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MERC trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2600, fair value $0.4200, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MERC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4200). For Mercer International Inc the two are $0.1600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercer International Inc worth?
The market values Mercer International Inc at about $17.4M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MERC?
Our models span a range for Mercer International Inc: cautious scenario $0.3100, base $0.4200, optimistic $0.6300 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MERC?
The PEG ratio of Mercer International Inc is 2.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercer International Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MERC from its 52-week high?
Mercer International Inc trades at $0.2600, about 91% below its 52-week high of $2.79 and 117% above the low of $0.1200 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercer International Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercer International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $0.2600, calculated fair value $0.4200 (+62%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MERC calculated?
We run Mercer International Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.4200 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mercer International Inc currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $0.2600. Our model-based fair value is $0.4200, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercer International Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3100 to $0.6300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mercer International Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The market capitalisation of Mercer International Inc is $17.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Earnings per share at Mercer International Inc are $−7.40. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The dividend yield of Mercer International Inc is 8.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The net margin of Mercer International Inc is −27.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercer International Inc is −493% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercer International Inc is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
The operating margin of Mercer International Inc is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Revenue at Mercer International Inc is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercer International Inc (MERC)?
Earnings per share at Mercer International Inc are growing −72.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mercer International Inc (MERC) generate?
The free cash flow of Mercer International Inc is −$80.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mercer International Inc (MERC) carry?
The net debt of Mercer International Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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