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Marmota Ltd (MEU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Marmota Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Jun 24, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Jun 24, 2026
Marmota Ltd
MEU · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value A$0.0300 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)
!Quality 25/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +36.5 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0280 – A$0.1750 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.0680 price screens above the A$0.0300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Company profile
Marmota Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for gold, titanium, and uranium deposits. The company's flagship project is the Aurora Tank, a gold discovery project in Australia. Marmota Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Glenelg, Australia.
Stock analysis
Marmota Ltd (MEU) currently trades at A$0.0680, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0300, implying the stock looks roughly 126.7% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.0680 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Marmota Ltd reported revenue of A$130K in FY2025 versus A$33.7K in FY2021, a compound +40.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$129M (≈ $90.6M) · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Revenue (TTM) −A$14.3K · Revenue growth (YoY) −60.6% · Free cash flow −A$452K · Net cash A$4.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −56%, MEU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0200
Fair Value A$0.0300
Bull A$0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
A$0.0200
50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
A$0.0200
50
Notify me when MEU reaches fair value
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
25/100
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
27
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+307.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
’13
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−970.4% (2020) → −540.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
MEU screens 127% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vale S.A XVALO | €12.26 | €8.03 | −35% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 62.70 SAR | 68.97 SAR | +10% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.66 | ¥20.07 | +14% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥60.26 | ¥31.23 | −48% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹595.45 | ₹655.00 | +10% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥36.77 | ¥40.45 | +10% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 539.40 | kr 464.47 | −14% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥49.34 | ¥24.75 | −50% |
| PLS Group PLS | A$4.18 | A$6.65 | +59% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Marmota Ltd (MEU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0300 versus a price of A$0.0680, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEU?
Our model-based fair value for Marmota Ltd is A$0.0300 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0680.
What is the quality score of MEU?
Marmota Ltd has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0300 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marmota Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0300, about −56% upside versus a price of A$0.0680 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marmota Ltd it is A$0.0300 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0680. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marmota Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, MEU trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0680, fair value A$0.0300, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0680); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0300). For Marmota Ltd the two are A$0.0380 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marmota Ltd worth?
The market values Marmota Ltd at about A$129M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0680; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEU?
Our models span a range for Marmota Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0300, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.0680). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marmota Ltd (as of Jun 24, 2026): return on equity −8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEU from its 52-week high?
Marmota Ltd trades at A$0.0680, about 61% below its 52-week high of A$0.1750 and 33% above the low of A$0.0510 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marmota Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marmota Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.0680, calculated fair value A$0.0300 (−56%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEU calculated?
We run Marmota Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Marmota Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0680. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0300, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marmota Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Marmota Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
The market capitalisation of Marmota Ltd is A$129M (≈ $90.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marmota Ltd is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marmota Ltd is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much revenue does Marmota Ltd (MEU) generate?
Marmota Ltd generates revenue of −A$14.3K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Marmota Ltd (MEU)?
Revenue at Marmota Ltd is growing −60.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +308%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Marmota Ltd (MEU) generate?
The free cash flow of Marmota Ltd is −A$452K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Marmota Ltd (MEU) hold?
Marmota Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$4.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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