Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Pilbara Minerals Ltd A$6.52, price A$3.50, upside +86.3%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.14 – A$6.74 · fair‑value band A$3.89 – A$9.12 · the A$3.50 price screens below the A$6.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 8, 2026.
Follow Pilbara Minerals in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Pilbara Minerals is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
PLS Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral resources in Australia. The company primarily explores for lithium. Its flagship projects is the 100% owned Pilgangoora project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Show more
PLS Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral resources in Australia. The company primarily explores for lithium. Its flagship projects is the 100% owned Pilgangoora project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Pilbara Minerals Limited and changed its name to PLS Group Limited in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) currently trades at A$3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.52, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$7.02 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$3.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.8500, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.89 (bear) to A$9.12 (bull), the price of A$3.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Pilbara Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.9B in FY2026 versus A$1.2B in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$526M in FY2026, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$12.4B (≈ $8.7B) · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 5.93 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1600 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 27.1% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 86%, PLS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$3.89Fair Value A$6.52Bull A$9.12
Price A$3.50 · Upside +86.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0310 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+117.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +270.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.2%
’14
’15
’16
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 43%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −2.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Pilbara Minerals restarted its Ngungaju plant and is advancing early spending on a major Pilgangoora expansion after posting record spodumene output. Fresh offtake deals add to the operational momentum in a rebounding lithium market. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the capacity build deliver sustained production gains or simply heighten sensitivity to price swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 369 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+86.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)55.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth281.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$6.52 versus a price of A$3.50, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PLS?
Our model-based fair value for Pilbara Minerals Ltd is A$6.52 (as of Oct 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.50.
What is the quality score of PLS?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$6.52 (as of Oct 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.89, optimistic scenario A$9.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pilbara Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$6.52, about +86% upside versus a price of A$3.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$3.89, optimistic scenario A$9.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 8, 2026).
Does Pilbara Minerals Ltd pay a dividend?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pilbara Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +61.6 % per year. As of Oct 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PLS use?
Our models discount Pilbara Minerals Ltd at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pilbara Minerals Ltd that is -4.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pilbara Minerals Ltd grew +61.6 % a year. The price currently implies -4.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pilbara Minerals Ltd (-4.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.69 %: that much free cash flow Pilbara Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pilbara Minerals Ltd it is A$6.52 per share (as of Oct 8, 2026), against a price of A$3.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pilbara Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 8, 2026, PLS trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.50, fair value A$6.52, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$6.52). For Pilbara Minerals Ltd the two are A$3.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pilbara Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Pilbara Minerals Ltd at about A$12.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 8, 2026). Per share that is A$3.50; our models calculate a fair value of A$6.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PLS?
Our models span a range for Pilbara Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.89, base A$6.52, optimistic A$9.12 per share (as of Oct 8, 2026, price A$3.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PLS?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Oct 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$6.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pilbara Minerals Ltd (as of Oct 8, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PLS from its 52-week high?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd trades at A$3.50, about 48% below its 52-week high of A$6.74 and 35% above the low of A$2.60 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$6.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pilbara Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pilbara Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 8, 2026: price A$3.50, calculated fair value A$6.52 (+86%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PLS calculated?
We run Pilbara Minerals Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$6.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Pilbara Minerals Ltd currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was A$3.50. Our model-based fair value is A$6.52, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pilbara Minerals Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$3.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (A$3.89 to A$9.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pilbara Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The market capitalisation of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is A$12.4B (≈ $8.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 5.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Earnings per share at Pilbara Minerals Ltd are A$0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The dividend yield of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 1.4% (payout 31.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The net margin of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 27.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 24.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
The operating margin of Pilbara Minerals Ltd is 55.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Revenue at Pilbara Minerals Ltd is growing +282% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS)?
Earnings per share at Pilbara Minerals Ltd are growing −96.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) hold?
Pilbara Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Pilbara Minerals Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Pilbara Minerals Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
