Vale S.A (XVALO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ES · Market cap €53.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from €7.94 to €8.05 (+1.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.7% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range €8.17 – €14.63 · fair‑value band €6.67 – €12.56 · the €12.30 price screens above the €8.05 fair value. As of Jul 16, 2026.
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Vale S.A (XVALO) currently trades at €12.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.05, implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vale S.A generated revenue of €215B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at €12.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.67 (bear case) to €12.56 (bull case); at €12.30, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -35%, XVALO screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale S.A reported revenue of €38.9B in FY2025 versus €54.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.5B in FY2025, compounding +225.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- VALE S.A. (VALE) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investors
- Vale CFO Sees Strong Demand for Iron Ore, Copper; But Iran War Looms as Risk
- VALE S.A. (VALE) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
- VALE S.A. (VALE) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPLF | $44.00 | $30.11 | -32% |
| Rio Tinto Group RTNTF | $129.57 | $77.65 | -40% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMBXF | $11.89 | $9.58 | -19% |
| CMOC Group CMCLY | $148.88 | $119.76 | -20% |
| Anglo American plc AAUKF | $55.08 | $15.08 | -73% |
| Fortescue Ltd FSUMF | $14.80 | $14.22 | -4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥77.95 | ¥4.90 | -94% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.20 | ₹649.37 | +13% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥49.66 | ¥17.16 | -65% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 545.40 | kr 372.59 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.