Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $126B

A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.86 – $10.70 · fair‑value band $6.57 – $10.95 · the $10.69 price screens above the $8.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) currently trades at $10.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.76, implying the stock looks roughly 18.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mizuho Financial Group generated revenue of $4.4T at a net margin of 28.4%. Revenue grew 16.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.4%. Net debt stands at $4.4T. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.57 (bear case) to $10.95 (bull case); at $10.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -18%, MFG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($16.28) versus Asset-Based ($2.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.

Full company description

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Retail & Business Banking Company; Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Markets Company; Asset Management Company; and Others segments. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; management of retirement payments; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers fund management, underwriting of equity and bonds, risk hedging products; solutions on capital management, business and financial strategy; real estate services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on financial strategy and proposals on investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers corporate finance and transaction banking services; sales and trading services; investment products; pension funds; and ALM and investment services, including stable capital raising and balance sheet management, as well as management of fixed income, equity, and other securities portfolios. Additionally, it provides online banking, cash management solutions, currency transaction, trade finance, custody, yen correspondence settlement, and research and consulting services; trust, securitization and structured finance, and stock transfer agency; and private banking and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Mizuho Financial Group reported revenue of $9.5T in FY2026 versus $2.8T in FY2022, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3T in FY2026, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2022.

MFG screens 18% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.