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Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock $5.90, price $9.40, that is 37.2% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · Based in Japan

MF Mizuho Financial Group Inc. logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Mizuho Financial Group Inc.

MFG · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 64/100
Highly profitable · 29.1% net margin (TTM)
1.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +35%, profit +50%.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +26.9 %/yr in JPY)
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $5.90 · Strongly overvalued (−37.2%)
Trails peers (4/14)
Negative coverage

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Digital banks erode retail deposits

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.36 $1.84 Fair Value $5.90 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.84 – $11.36 · fair‑value band $4.43 – $7.38 · the $9.40 price screens above the $5.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.

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It operates through Retail & Business Banking Company; Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Markets Company; Asset Management Company; and Others segments.

The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; management of retirement payments; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services.

It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities.

In addition, it offers fund management, underwriting of equity and bonds, risk hedging products; solutions on capital management, business and financial strategy; real estate services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on financial strategy and proposals on investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting.

Further, the company offers corporate finance and transaction banking services; sales and trading services; investment products; pension funds; and ALM and investment services, including stable capital raising and balance sheet management, as well as management of fixed income, equity, and other securities portfolios.

Additionally, it provides online banking, cash management solutions, currency transaction, trade finance, custody, yen correspondence settlement, and research and consulting services; trust, securitization and structured finance, and stock transfer agency; and private banking and information technology-related services.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) currently trades at $9.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.90, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $6.84 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $9.40 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.77, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.43 (bear) to $7.38 (bull), the price of $9.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. reported revenue of ¥9.5T in FY2026 versus ¥2.8T in FY2022, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3T in FY2026, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $117B Large · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −37%, MFG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.43 Fair Value $5.90 Bull $7.38
Price $9.40 · Downside -37.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3362 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $5.65 $6.84 $9.93 75
DDM Multi-Stage $2.06 $3.74 $4.87 66
Gordon GGM $2.06 $4.71 $8.44 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.06 $4.71 $8.44 65
DDM Multi-Stage $2.06 $3.74 $4.87 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.77 $9.03 $11.28 63
P/B Multiple $2.08 $2.77 $3.47 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.75 $3.68 $5.50 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.65 $6.84 $9.93 75

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 36
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 69
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 77
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 79
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 61
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 72
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 94
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +24.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 23.5% / −7.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 18%
2026 sits 99% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 37.2 per share, median 233 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.

MFG screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Note from the team Oct 29, 2026
AI conclusion: Mizuho's main strength is its push to expand in Southeast Asia through a potential minority stake in Bank Panin while its main weak point is the thin evidence of any durable competitive moat in regulated and competitive banking.
Main risk: Digital banks such as Rakuten Bank, SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Sony Bank could attract more retail deposits from Mizuho with higher interest rates and superior digital interfaces, squeezing its funding base or margins in consumer banking.
Bull case: By deepening alliances with digital platforms such as Rakuten and rolling out its own AI-enhanced services Mizuho could retain customers and combine its corporate lending strengths with faster retail acquisition.
Bear case: Should digital competitors keep drawing younger customers and deposits at a faster pace Mizuho might incur higher funding costs and lose scale in its retail operations over the coming years.
Mizuho is in early discussions to acquire a minority stake in Indonesia's Bank Panin from ANZ as it seeks to expand in Southeast Asia. The regional bank has lagged its Japanese peers in building a footprint there. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the push abroad generate enough returns to close the gap with rivals or expose it to new execution risks?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1000 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 12.5% · Above median
Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 29.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 46.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 35.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.85× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.90× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 37.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.59× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)50 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)7 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)37 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MFG
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MFG
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MFG
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MFG
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs MFG
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MFG
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 27.73 SGD 18.20 SGD −34% vs MFG
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MFG
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MFG
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MFG

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Mizuho Financial Group Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MFG

Frequently asked questions

Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.90 versus a price of $9.40, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MFG?
Our model-based fair value for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is $5.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.40.
What is the quality score of MFG?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.43, optimistic scenario $7.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.90, about 37% lower versus a price of $9.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.43, optimistic scenario $7.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mizuho Financial Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. it is $5.90 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $9.40. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.40, fair value $5.90, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.90). For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. the two are $3.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. worth?
The market values Mizuho Financial Group Inc. at about $117B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $9.40; our models calculate a fair value of $5.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFG?
Our models span a range for Mizuho Financial Group Inc.: cautious scenario $4.43, base $5.90, optimistic $7.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $9.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFG?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 8.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MFG?
The PEG ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 1.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFG from its 52-week high?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. trades at $9.40, about 17% below its 52-week high of $11.36 and 48% above the low of $6.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mizuho Financial Group Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $9.40, calculated fair value $5.90 (−37%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFG calculated?
We run Mizuho Financial Group Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.40. Our model-based fair value is $5.90, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) come from?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. grew −3.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mizuho Financial Group Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is $117B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.9% (payout 23.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 46.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Revenue at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is growing +35.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. are growing +49.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) generate?
The free cash flow of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is ¥488B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) carry?
The net debt of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is ¥4.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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