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Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A (MIG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · GR · Market cap €99.4M · ISIN GRS314003005

What is Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A really worth?

MI Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A MIG · AT
Price€3.49
Fair Value€2.73
Upside−21.6%
Quality68/100

A solid business, but trading 28% above our fair value of €2.73.

As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A is €2.73 per share against a price of €3.49, so the fair value sits 22% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Highly profitable · 31.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −62.0 %/yr)
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range €2.05 – €3.41

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from €2.74 to €2.73 (−0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −2.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€7.05 €0.6510 Fair Value €2.73 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.6510 – €7.05 · fair‑value band €2.05 – €3.41 · the €3.49 price screens above the €2.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A (MIG) currently trades at €3.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.73, implying the stock looks roughly 27.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €21.35 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the €3.49 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €1.13, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A generated revenue of €13.7M at a net margin of 31.0%. Revenue grew 59.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at €84.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.05 (bear case) to €3.41 (bull case); at €3.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −22%, MIG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings best evidence €21.50 €27.78 €37.88 77
FCF DCF €0.3200 €1.10 €2.36 73
Growth DCF €0.4000 €1.13 €2.23 73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.3200 €1.10 €2.36 73
Owner Earnings best evidence €21.50 €27.78 €37.88 77
5Y P/E Exit €22.42 €39.74 €60.30 69
10Y P/E Exit €11.78 €21.22 €30.42 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €22.71 €27.76 €31.23 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €52.60 €70.14 €87.67 63
P/S Multiple €0.3000 €0.4000 €0.5000 58
P/B Multiple €16.01 €21.35 €26.68 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.94 €2.60 €3.88 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.4000 €1.13 €2.23 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income €16.03 €27.39 €485.03 58
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €37.14 €53.06 €68.98 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€53.06) versus Growth DCF (€1.13). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 116.2
EPS (TTM) €0.0300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 116.2
Net margin 31.0% TTM
Return on equity 3.3% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 46.2% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €13.7M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +59.5% 3y avg −70.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +241%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €13.1M FY2023
Net debt €84.5M FY2023 · ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

MIG Holdings S.A., an investment holding company, focuses on investment in equities in Greece and South-Eastern Europe. The company engages in the real estate management; ship management; overseas and coastal transportation; production and distribution of dairy products, animal feed, vegetables, and frozen foods; restaurants and café-patisseries; and …

Full company description

MIG Holdings S.A., an investment holding company, focuses on investment in equities in Greece and South-Eastern Europe. The company engages in the real estate management; ship management; overseas and coastal transportation; production and distribution of dairy products, animal feed, vegetables, and frozen foods; restaurants and café-patisseries; and beverage and fast-food businesses. It also provides education services; integrated software solutions; IT systems and software applications; aircraft maintenance and repair; advertising services; and computer and software solutions, as well as its related application services. The company is based in Athens, Greece.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A reported revenue of €7.9M in FY2023 versus €1.1B in FY2019, a compound −70.7%/yr. Reported net income was €105M in FY2023.

Growth Quality 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
€7.9M
Latest YoY
+10.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−70.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−62.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−42.3%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2018) → −1.5% (2023)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Revenue −70.7%/yr
FY19 €1.1B
FY20 €303M
FY21 €360M
FY22 €7.1M
FY23 €7.9M
Net income
FY19 −€32.3M
FY20 −€154M
FY21 −€22.9M
FY22 −€9.0M
FY23 €105M

MIG screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MIG.AT

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 648 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 46% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 60% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.75× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 116.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 8.40× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 8.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 41.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE4 · sector 25
FUTURE100 · sector 21
PAST13 · sector 29
HEALTH62 · sector 96
DIVIDEND0 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 78.62 CHF 57.26 −27%
Danone S.A BN €64.28 €48.41 −25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,478 ₹251.94 −83%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $24.85 $24.59 −1%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.05 ¥21.93 −37%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥25.51 ¥32.50 +27%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.28 ¥9.89 −61%
General Mills, Inc GIS $38.29 $28.32 −26%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.64 SGD 3.89 SGD +7%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,511 ₹1,765 −68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A (MIG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.73 versus a price of €3.49, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MIG?
Our model-based fair value for Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A is €2.73 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.49.
What is the quality score of MIG?
Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A (MIG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.73 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.05, optimistic scenario €3.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.73, about −22% upside versus a price of €3.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.05, optimistic scenario €3.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A (MIG)?
Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.7M (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MIG?
The net profit margin of Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A is about 31.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 31.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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