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Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US6047491013

MP Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc

MIRM · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $18.44 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +116.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -140.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $10.76 to $34.48
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$128.57 $13.05 Fair Value $18.44 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.05 – $128.57 · fair‑value band $10.76 – $34.48 · the $98.22 price screens above the $18.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapies for debilitating rare and orphan diseases.

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Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapies for debilitating rare and orphan diseases. Its lead product candidate is LIVMARLI (maralixibat), an orally administered and minimally absorbed ileal bile acid transporter (IBAT) inhibitor that is approved for the treatment of cholestatic pruritus in patients with Alagille syndrome in the United States and internationally. The company is also involved in the commercialization of Cholbam, a cholic acid capsule, which is approved as treatment for pediatric and adult patients with bile acid synthesis disorders due to single enzyme defects and for adjunctive treatment of patients with peroxisomal disorders, including peroxisome biogenesis disorder-Zellweger spectrum disorder and Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome; and Chenodal, a tablet, which is approved for the treatment of radiolucent stones in the gallbladder, and under development for the treatment cerebrotendinous xanthomatosis. In addition, it develops Volixibat, an oral and minimally absorbed agent designed to inhibit IBAT, currently under Phase 2b clinical trial for the treatment of adult patients with cholestatic liver diseases; Brelovitug, for the treatment of chronic HDV infection, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; and MRM-3379, that is in Phase 2 clinical study for the treatment of FXS. The company has a collaboration agreement with the Shire International GmbH; License Agreement with Pfizer Inc.; Sanofi-Aventis Deutschland GmbH; Novartis Pharma AG; Lonza Ltd.; Enthorin Therapeutics, LLC and Dart Neuroscience LLC; Asset Purchase Agreement with Asklepion Pharmaceuticals, LLC; License and Manufacturing Agreement with LGM Pharma; and Asset Purchase Agreement with Travere Therapeutics, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

Stock analysis

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) currently trades at $98.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.44, implying the stock looks roughly 432.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $20.28 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $98.22 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.46, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $10.76 (bear) to $34.48 (bull), the price of $98.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $521M in FY2025 versus $19.1M in FY2021, a compound +128.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $7.4B · P/S ratio 13.1 · EPS (TTM) $−13.61 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −336% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.7% · Operating margin −39.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −81%, MIRM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2700 to $25.37). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $10.76 Fair Value $18.44 Bull $34.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.14 $5.14 $7.01 74
FCF DCF $14.10 $21.82 $45.90 73
Growth DCF $13.23 $25.37 $44.93 73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.10 $21.82 $45.90 73
5Y Revenue Exit $10.35 $17.70 $33.04 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.14 $5.14 $7.01 74
10Y Revenue Exit $11.29 $24.08 $31.93 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $7.21 $11.01 $15.96 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8000 $1.59 $2.41 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8000 $1.38 $1.68 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.1500 $0.2700 $0.3900 65
EV/Revenue $7.97 $11.48 $14.99 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.58 $3.46 $5.16 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.23 $25.37 $44.93 73
Rev-Margin DCF $11.43 $20.28 $38.82 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 12
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+54.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+116.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−948.1% (2020) → −4.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+29.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+20.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+18.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+16.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+13.7%

MIRM screens 433% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 645 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −100% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −140% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −40% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.98× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 23.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 13.08× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 135.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)51 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $515.44 $566.98 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $781.49 $1,241 +59%
argenx SE ARGX €853.80 €752.12 −12%
BeOne Medicines AG 688235 ¥247.30 ¥124.62 −50%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,415,000 KRW 1,556,500 KRW +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $248.68 $211.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.61 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 178,200 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $96.73 $63.31 −35%
Incyte Corporation INCY $121.47 $204.93 +69%

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$18.44 −433%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MIRM

Frequently asked questions

Is Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.44 versus a price of $98.22, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MIRM?
Our model-based fair value for Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is $18.44 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $98.22.
What is the quality score of MIRM?
Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.44 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.76, optimistic scenario $34.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.44, about −81% upside versus a price of $98.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.76, optimistic scenario $34.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $570M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc pay a dividend?
Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +34.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +116.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MIRM use?
Our models discount Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +34.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +116.3 % a year. The price currently implies +34.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (+34.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.11 %: that much free cash flow Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $18.44 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $98.22. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, MIRM trades above its calculated fair value: price $98.22, fair value $18.44, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MIRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($98.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.44). For Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $79.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $7.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $98.22; our models calculate a fair value of $18.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MIRM?
Our models span a range for Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $10.76, base $18.44, optimistic $34.48 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $98.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −335.8%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MIRM from its 52-week high?
Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $98.22, about 15% below its 52-week high of $114.99 and 126% above the low of $43.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, BeOne Medicines AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $98.22, calculated fair value $18.44 (−81%), Quality Score 47/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MIRM calculated?
We run Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($10.76 to $34.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The market capitalisation of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is $7.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is 13.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Earnings per share at Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−13.61. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The dividend yield of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The net margin of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is −336% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is −25.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
The operating margin of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is −39.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM)?
Revenue at Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +43.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +89.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) carry?
The net debt of Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc is $22.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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