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Data-driven stock valuation

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. stock $6.21, price $15.33, that is 59.5% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US

MT Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

MLYS · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 60% below what the stock costs today.

Positive coverage
Insiders sold $12.5M (6M)
Fair value $6.21 · Strongly overvalued (−59.5%)
Quality 36/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$47.33 $5.96 Fair Value $6.21 Feb 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

45‑month range $5.96 – $47.33 · fair‑value band $4.10 – $7.75 · the $15.33 price screens above the $6.21 fair value. As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops medicines to target diseases driven by dysregulated aldosterone in the United States.

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It is developing lorundrostat, a proprietary, orally administered, highly selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor for the treatment of cardiorenal conditions affected by dysregulated aldosterone, such as hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and obstructive sleep apnea.

The company was formerly known as Catalys SC1, Inc. and changed its name to Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2020. Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) currently trades at $15.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.21, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $4.10 (bear) to $7.75 (bull), the price of $15.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$155M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B Small · EPS (TTM) $−4.34 · Return on equity −80.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −69.7% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$142M · Net cash $173M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −60%, MLYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.10 Fair Value $6.21 Bull $7.75
Price $15.33 · Downside -59.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $4.82 $7.30 $9.12 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.82 $7.30 $9.12 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 28
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 97
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 38
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.5M and none bought.

  • SaleJon CongletonChief Executive Officer, Director7× since Nov 11, 2025: 467,666 shares, avg. $34.58$16.2MSep 30, 2026
  • SaleBrian Taylor SlingsbyDirector104,320 shares at $28.81$3.0MSep 22, 2026
  • SaleEric WarrenChief Commercial Officer4× since Jun 26, 2026: 126,437 shares, avg. $26.09$3.3MSep 21, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleDaphne KarydasDirector4× since Nov 13, 2025: 24,000 shares, avg. $38.57$925,577Sep 15, 2026
  • SaleDavid Malcom RodmanChief Medical Officer21× since Jan 2, 2026: 430,889 shares, avg. $32.42$14.0MAug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
  • BuyRajeev M. ShahDirector369,000 shares at $23.75$8.8MMar 30, 2026
  • SaleAdam Scott LevyCFO and Secretary2× since Nov 11, 2025: 130,282 shares, avg. $43.82$5.7MJan 12, 2026
  • SaleCatalys Pacific Fund, LP10% owner1,000,000 shares at $43.35$43.4MNov 20, 2025
  • SaleAlexander M GoldDirector34,675 shares at $45.45$1.6MNov 13, 2025

Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MLYS screens overvalued: fair value 60% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −59.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −23.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.01× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Incyte Corporation INCY $119.65 $199.23 +67% vs MLYS
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $904.35 $1,275 +41% vs MLYS
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,527 kr 3,999 +13% vs MLYS
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,516,000 KRW 1,667,600 KRW +10% vs MLYS
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$47.62 HK$52.38 +10% vs MLYS
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.09 $596.75 +9% vs MLYS
argenx SE ARGX $927.21 $908.40 −2% vs MLYS
CSL Limited CSL A$202.04 A$183.04 −9% vs MLYS
Celltrion, Inc 068270 211,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs MLYS
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.30 $19.01 −72% vs MLYS

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Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.21 versus a price of $15.33, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MLYS?
Our model-based fair value for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. is $6.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.33.
What is the quality score of MLYS?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $7.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.21, about 60% lower versus a price of $15.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $7.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. it is $6.21 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $15.33. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MLYS trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.33, fair value $6.21, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.21). For Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. the two are $9.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $15.33; our models calculate a fair value of $6.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLYS?
Our models span a range for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.: cautious scenario $4.10, base $6.21, optimistic $7.75 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $15.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −80.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLYS from its 52-week high?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. trades at $15.33, about 68% below its 52-week high of $47.33 and 1% above the low of $15.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $15.33, calculated fair value $6.21 (−60%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLYS calculated?
We run Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.33. Our model-based fair value is $6.21, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.10 to $7.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
The market capitalisation of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
Earnings per share at Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. are $−4.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. is −80.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. is −69.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. is −$142M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS) hold?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $173M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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