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Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock $6.21, price $29.40, upside -78.9%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US6031701013

MT Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock

MLYS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $6.21 · Strongly overvalued (−79%)
!Quality 29/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Insider activity 54/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$47.33 $5.96 Fair Value $6.21 Feb 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range $5.96 – $47.33 · fair‑value band $4.10 – $7.77 · the $29.40 price screens above the $6.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops medicines to target diseases driven by dysregulated aldosterone in the United States.

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Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops medicines to target diseases driven by dysregulated aldosterone in the United States. It is developing lorundrostat, a proprietary, orally administered, highly selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor for the treatment of cardiorenal conditions affected by dysregulated aldosterone, such as hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and obstructive sleep apnea. The company was formerly known as Catalys SC1, Inc. and changed its name to Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2020. Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS) currently trades at $29.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.21, implying the stock looks roughly 373.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $4.10 (bear) to $7.77 (bull), the price of $29.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$155M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.5B · EPS (TTM) $−1.97 · Return on equity −31.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −69.7% · Free cash flow −$142M · Net cash $173M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 134% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −79%, MLYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.10 Fair Value $6.21 Bull $7.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.66 $4.90 $7.31 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.66 $4.90 $7.31 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MLYS screens 373% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 648 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −46% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.85× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $368.08 $280.94 −24%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock · Fair Value
$6.21 −373%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.21 versus a price of $29.40, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MLYS?
Our model-based fair value for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock is $6.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.40.
What is the quality score of MLYS?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $7.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.21, about −79% upside versus a price of $29.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $7.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock it is $6.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $29.40. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MLYS trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.40, fair value $6.21, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.21). For Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock the two are $23.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $29.40; our models calculate a fair value of $6.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLYS?
Our models span a range for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $4.10, base $6.21, optimistic $7.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $29.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −80.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLYS from its 52-week high?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock trades at $29.40, about 38% below its 52-week high of $47.65 and 134% above the low of $12.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $29.40, calculated fair value $6.21 (−79%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLYS calculated?
We run Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $29.40. Our model-based fair value is $6.21, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.10 to $7.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
The market capitalisation of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
Earnings per share at Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock are $−1.97. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock is −31.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock is −69.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock is −$142M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (MLYS) hold?
Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $173M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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