Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Morinaga Milk Industry Co €6.86, price €5.85, upside +17.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
MMBroad dataSep 30, 2026
Morinaga Milk Industry Co
MO8 · F
UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.10 – €7.12 · fair‑value band €4.56 – €10.03 · the €5.85 price screens below the €6.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various dairy products in Japan and internationally.
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Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various dairy products in Japan and internationally. The company offers milk products, including homogenized, sterilized whole, and enriched milk; beverages comprising milk-based, coffee, chilled tea, and various other beverages; Greek, fruit, and various other yogurt products; chilled desserts, such as baked, milk, and low carb pudding; and ice cream products. It also provides cheese and butter; infant formula and baby food products; milk powder, milk supplements, and bifidobacterium longum BB536 per capsule; liquid diet and nursing care food; and other products, including creaming powder, condensed milk, and tofu. The company was formerly known as Nippon Rennyu Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. in 1949. Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) currently trades at €5.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.86, implying the stock looks roughly 14.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €6.80 per share, and 16 of the 23 models we run sit above the €5.85 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.27, and 7 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.56 (bear) to €10.03 (bull), the price of €5.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Morinaga Milk Industry Co reported revenue of ¥571B in FY2026 versus ¥503B in FY2022, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥22.6B in FY2026, compounding −9.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.9B · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) €0.3800 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 17%, MO8 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €4.56Fair Value €6.86Bull €10.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.9% vs 0.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.9%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.2% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Morinaga Milk Industry Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+14.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Morinaga Milk Industry Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MO8
Frequently asked questions
Is Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.86 versus a price of €5.85, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MO8?
Our model-based fair value for Morinaga Milk Industry Co is €6.86 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.85.
What is the quality score of MO8?
Morinaga Milk Industry Co has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.86 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.56, optimistic scenario €10.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Morinaga Milk Industry Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.86, about +17% upside versus a price of €5.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.56, optimistic scenario €10.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Morinaga Milk Industry Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥575B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Morinaga Milk Industry Co pay a dividend?
Morinaga Milk Industry Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Morinaga Milk Industry Co would have to grow free cash flow by -18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.4 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MO8 use?
Our models discount Morinaga Milk Industry Co at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Morinaga Milk Industry Co that is -18.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Morinaga Milk Industry Co grew -0.4 % a year. The price currently implies -18.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Morinaga Milk Industry Co (-18.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 42.69 %: that much free cash flow Morinaga Milk Industry Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Morinaga Milk Industry Co it is €6.86 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €5.85. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Morinaga Milk Industry Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, MO8 trades below its calculated fair value: price €5.85, fair value €6.86, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MO8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.86). For Morinaga Milk Industry Co the two are €1.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Morinaga Milk Industry Co worth?
The market values Morinaga Milk Industry Co at about €1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €5.85; our models calculate a fair value of €6.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MO8?
Our models span a range for Morinaga Milk Industry Co: cautious scenario €4.56, base €6.86, optimistic €10.03 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €5.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MO8?
Morinaga Milk Industry Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Balance-sheet figures for Morinaga Milk Industry Co (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MO8 from its 52-week high?
Morinaga Milk Industry Co trades at €5.85, about 18% below its 52-week high of €7.12 and 30% above the low of €4.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Morinaga Milk Industry Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Morinaga Milk Industry Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €5.85, calculated fair value €6.86 (+17%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MO8 calculated?
We run Morinaga Milk Industry Co through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €6.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Morinaga Milk Industry Co currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €5.85. Our model-based fair value is €6.86, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Morinaga Milk Industry Co right now?
A fairly wide model range (€4.56 to €10.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Morinaga Milk Industry Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The market capitalisation of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is €1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Earnings per share at Morinaga Milk Industry Co are €0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The dividend yield of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 2.2% (payout 33.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The net margin of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 4.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
The operating margin of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Revenue at Morinaga Milk Industry Co is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8)?
Earnings per share at Morinaga Milk Industry Co are growing +299% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Morinaga Milk Industry Co (MO8) carry?
The net debt of Morinaga Milk Industry Co is ¥91.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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