MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. ₹12.86, price ₹53.96, upside -76.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹7.46 – ₹72.15 · fair‑value band ₹11.47 – ₹14.76 · the ₹53.96 price screens above the ₹12.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY) currently trades at ₹53.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹12.86, 76.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹32.14 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the ₹53.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹11.62, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹11.47 (bear) to ₹14.76 (bull), the price of ₹53.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Goods sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
MODERN DAIRIES LTD. reported revenue of ₹3.4B in FY2026 versus ₹2.4B in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹48.8M in FY2026, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.7B (≈ $17.9M) · P/E ratio 28.3 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) ₹1.91 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6% · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Goods peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −76%, MODAIRY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹11.47Fair Value ₹12.86Bull ₹14.76
Price ₹53.96 · Upside -76.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.9785 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 2%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.2%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹12.86 versus a price of ₹53.96, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MODAIRY?
Our model-based fair value for MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is ₹12.86 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹53.96.
What is the quality score of MODAIRY?
MODERN DAIRIES LTD. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹12.86 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹11.47, optimistic scenario ₹14.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MODERN DAIRIES LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹12.86, about −76% upside versus a price of ₹53.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹11.47, optimistic scenario ₹14.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
MODERN DAIRIES LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MODERN DAIRIES LTD. it is ₹12.86 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹53.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MODERN DAIRIES LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MODAIRY trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹53.96, fair value ₹12.86, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MODAIRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹53.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹12.86). For MODERN DAIRIES LTD. the two are ₹41.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MODERN DAIRIES LTD. worth?
The market values MODERN DAIRIES LTD. at about ₹1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹53.96; our models calculate a fair value of ₹12.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MODAIRY?
Our models span a range for MODERN DAIRIES LTD.: cautious scenario ₹11.47, base ₹12.86, optimistic ₹14.76 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹53.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MODAIRY?
MODERN DAIRIES LTD. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹12.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MODAIRY from its 52-week high?
MODERN DAIRIES LTD. trades at ₹53.96, at its 52-week high of ₹53.96 and 97% above the low of ₹27.44 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹12.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MODERN DAIRIES LTD.?
From the same area (Consumer Goods) we also value Flex Foods Limited, CHORDIA, MAHAANF, Prima Agro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MODERN DAIRIES LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹53.96, calculated fair value ₹12.86 (−76%), Quality Score 33/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MODAIRY calculated?
We run MODERN DAIRIES LTD. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹12.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MODERN DAIRIES LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹53.96. Our model-based fair value is ₹12.86, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MODERN DAIRIES LTD. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹14.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of MODERN DAIRIES LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The market capitalisation of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is ₹1.7B (≈ $17.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Earnings per share at MODERN DAIRIES LTD. are ₹1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The net margin of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is 1.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
The operating margin of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Revenue at MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY)?
Earnings per share at MODERN DAIRIES LTD. are growing +23.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY) generate?
The free cash flow of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is −₹56.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MODERN DAIRIES LTD. (MODAIRY) carry?
The net debt of MODERN DAIRIES LTD. is ₹12.8M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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