Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Murata Manufacturing Inc $16.38, price $25.10, upside -34.7%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.19 – $38.28 · fair‑value band $11.46 – $21.28 · the $25.10 price screens above the $16.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells ceramic-based passive electronic components and solutions in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Components, Devices & Modules, and Other.
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Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells ceramic-based passive electronic components and solutions in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Components, Devices & Modules, and Other. The company offers capacitors; inductors; high frequency device and communication modules, including surface acoustic wave filters, RF modules, multilayer resin substrates, and connectivity modules; lithium-ion secondary batteries; and sensors; antennas and related products; baluns; and batteries. It also offers Femtet, a CAE software; capacitors; cell fractionation filters; connectivity modules; connectors; couplers; digital panel meters; filters; front-end modules; inductors; ionizers; micro mechatronics; watch batteries; noise suppression products; and optical devices. In addition, the company provides phase shifters, power products, printed circuit products, resistors, RF switches, RFID products, sensors, sound components, thermistors, timing devices, and transformers. It offers its products for use in communications equipment, mobility, data center and enterprise computing, industrial, wellness, personal electronics, and environment/energy applications. The company was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Nagaokakyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) currently trades at $25.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.38, implying the stock looks roughly 53.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.72 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $25.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.33, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.46 (bear) to $21.28 (bull), the price of $25.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Murata Manufacturing Inc reported revenue of ¥1.9T in FY2026 versus ¥1.8T in FY2022, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥248B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $135B · P/E ratio 62.8 · P/S ratio 8.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 189% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −35%, MRAAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.46Fair Value $16.38Bull $21.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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’25
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 17%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.6% a year for the price and +8.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Murata Manufacturing Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 654 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−35% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)62.8× · Pricier than median
P/B7.82× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)11.66× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA40.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.26× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)35· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.38 versus a price of $25.10, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRAAY?
Our model-based fair value for Murata Manufacturing Inc is $16.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.10.
What is the quality score of MRAAY?
Murata Manufacturing Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.46, optimistic scenario $21.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Murata Manufacturing Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.38, about −35% upside versus a price of $25.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.46, optimistic scenario $21.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Murata Manufacturing Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Murata Manufacturing Inc pay a dividend?
Murata Manufacturing Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Murata Manufacturing Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +33.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRAAY use?
Our models discount Murata Manufacturing Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Murata Manufacturing Inc that is +33.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Murata Manufacturing Inc grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +33.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Murata Manufacturing Inc (+33.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.41 %: that much free cash flow Murata Manufacturing Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Murata Manufacturing Inc it is $16.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $25.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Murata Manufacturing Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MRAAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.10, fair value $16.38, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRAAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.38). For Murata Manufacturing Inc the two are $8.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Murata Manufacturing Inc worth?
The market values Murata Manufacturing Inc at about $135B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $25.10; our models calculate a fair value of $16.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRAAY?
Our models span a range for Murata Manufacturing Inc: cautious scenario $11.46, base $16.38, optimistic $21.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $25.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRAAY?
Murata Manufacturing Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 7.8, P/S 11.7, EV/EBITDA 40.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MRAAY?
The PEG ratio of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 3.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Murata Manufacturing Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRAAY from its 52-week high?
Murata Manufacturing Inc trades at $25.10, about 34% below its 52-week high of $38.28 and 189% above the low of $8.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Murata Manufacturing Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Murata Manufacturing Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $25.10, calculated fair value $16.38 (−35%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRAAY calculated?
We run Murata Manufacturing Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Murata Manufacturing Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $25.10. Our model-based fair value is $16.38, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Murata Manufacturing Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($11.46 to $21.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Murata Manufacturing Inc grew +2.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Murata Manufacturing Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The market capitalisation of Murata Manufacturing Inc is $135B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 8.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Earnings per share at Murata Manufacturing Inc are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The dividend yield of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 0.5% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The net margin of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 12.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
The operating margin of Murata Manufacturing Inc is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Revenue at Murata Manufacturing Inc is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY)?
Earnings per share at Murata Manufacturing Inc are growing +141% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Murata Manufacturing Inc (MRAAY) hold?
Murata Manufacturing Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥601B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026