Moderna, Inc (MRNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $27.1B
Moderna, Inc
MRNA · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $13.31 to $12.77 (−4.1%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.19 to $20.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.36 – $484.47 · fair‑value band $6.19 – $20.06 · the $63.65 price screens above the $12.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Moderna, Inc (MRNA) currently trades at $63.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.77, implying the stock looks roughly 79.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.2B. Revenue grew 260.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -36.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $679M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.19 (bear case) to $20.06 (bull case); at $63.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 186% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -80%, MRNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($14.61) versus Dividend Discount ($10.95). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Notify me when MRNA reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moderna, Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $17.7B in FY2021, a compound −42.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.8B in FY2025.
MRNA screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Could Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) Turn its Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Settlement Into a Lasting Biotech Advantage?
- RocketLab Rises on Space Interest; Moderna Moves on Flu Shot | Stock Movers
- Moderna (MRNA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Moderna Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Cost Cuts and Pipeline Milestones
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
Compare Moderna, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Moderna, Inc (MRNA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MRNA?
What is the quality score of MRNA?
What is the revenue of Moderna, Inc (MRNA)?
What is the net profit margin of MRNA?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Moderna, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.