Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd ZAR 32.71, price ZAR 38.98, upside -16.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R10.92 – R42.61 · fair‑value band R25.11 – R56.53 · the R38.98 price screens above the R32.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Momentum Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Momentum Retail, Momentum Investments, Metropolitan Life, Momentum Corporate, Momentum Metropolitan Health, Guardrisk, Momentum Insure, Momentum Metropolitan Africa, India, and Shareholders segments.
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Momentum Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Momentum Retail, Momentum Investments, Metropolitan Life, Momentum Corporate, Momentum Metropolitan Health, Guardrisk, Momentum Insure, Momentum Metropolitan Africa, India, and Shareholders segments. The company offers long and short-term insurance; employee benefits; asset management, property management, investments, and savings; health administration services, such as managed care and wellness services. It also provides insurance products, such as life, non-life, health, and annuities and structured products. The company operates under the Metropolitan, Momentum, Guardrisk, Eris, and other brands. The company was formerly known as Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Limited. Momentum Group Limited is headquartered in Centurion, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) currently trades at R38.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R32.71, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R38.35 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R38.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R16.93, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R25.11 (bear) to R56.53 (bull), the price of R38.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 127B ZAR in FY2025 versus 108B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.0B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +90.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 53.5B ZAC · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) R4.47 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −16%, MTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R25.11Fair Value R32.71Bull R56.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.47 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+90.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+85.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.69% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
2025 sits 71% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.2% a year for the price.
Compare Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R32.71 versus a price of R38.98, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTM?
Our model-based fair value for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is R32.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R38.98.
What is the quality score of MTM?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R32.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R25.11, optimistic scenario R56.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R32.71, about −16% upside versus a price of R38.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R25.11, optimistic scenario R56.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 63.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTM use?
Our models discount Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd that is -10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd grew +20.1 % a year. The price currently implies -10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (-10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.53 %: that much free cash flow Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd it is R32.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R38.98. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MTM trades above its calculated fair value: price R38.98, fair value R32.71, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R38.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R32.71). For Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd the two are R6.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd at about 53.5B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R38.98; our models calculate a fair value of R32.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTM?
Our models span a range for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R25.11, base R32.71, optimistic R56.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R38.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTM?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R32.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 180.9, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MTM?
The PEG ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 180.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTM from its 52-week high?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd trades at R38.98, about 9% below its 52-week high of R42.61 and 27% above the low of R30.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R32.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R38.98, calculated fair value R32.71 (−16%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTM calculated?
We run Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R32.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R38.98. Our model-based fair value is R32.71, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R25.11 to R56.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) come from?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The market capitalisation of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 53.5B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd are R4.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The dividend yield of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 5.1% (payout 44.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The net margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 4.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
The operating margin of Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Revenue at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM)?
Earnings per share at Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd are growing +5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd (MTM) hold?
Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 32.0B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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