Momentum Group (MTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 51.3B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +7.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R45.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R10.56 – R41.17 · fair‑value band R45.25 – R75.41 · the R40.51 price screens below the R60.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Momentum Group (MTM) currently trades at R40.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R60.33, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Momentum Group generated revenue of 63.2B ZAR at a net margin of 9.5%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 32.0B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R45.25 (bear case) to R75.41 (bull case); at R40.51, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 49%, MTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (R39.84) versus Asset-Based (R16.93). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Momentum Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Momentum Retail, Momentum Investments, Metropolitan Life, Momentum Corporate, Momentum Metropolitan Health, Guardrisk, Momentum Insure, Momentum Metropolitan Africa, India, and Shareholders segments.
Full company description
Momentum Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Momentum Retail, Momentum Investments, Metropolitan Life, Momentum Corporate, Momentum Metropolitan Health, Guardrisk, Momentum Insure, Momentum Metropolitan Africa, India, and Shareholders segments. The company offers long and short-term insurance; employee benefits; asset management, property management, investments, and savings; health administration services, such as managed care and wellness services. It also provides insurance products, such as life, non-life, health, and annuities and structured products. The company operates under the Metropolitan, Momentum, Guardrisk, Eris, and other brands. The company was formerly known as Momentum Metropolitan Holdings Limited. Momentum Group Limited is headquartered in Centurion, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Momentum Group reported revenue of R127B in FY2025 versus R108B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was R6.0B in FY2025, compounding +90.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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