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Microvision Inc (MVIS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Microvision Inc stock $1.10, price $1.30, upside -15.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

MI Microvision Inc logo Thin data Oct 29, 2026

Microvision Inc

MVIS · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value $1.10 · Overvalued (−15.4%)
Quality 36/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −17.1 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/8)
Narrow moat 2/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$238.50 $1.13 Fair Value $1.10 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.13 – $238.50 · fair‑value band $0.7200 – $1.37 · the $1.30 price screens above the $1.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Company profile

MicroVision, Inc. develops and commercializes lidar sensors and perception solutions in the United States, Germany, and internationally.

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It offers lidar sensors, such as MOVIA, a flash-based short- to mid-range sensor; MAVIN, a MEMS-based 905nm long-range sensor capable of small object detection; IRIS and HALO, which are 1550nm long-range sensors; and Scantinel, 1550nm long-range FMCW lidar.

The company also provides engineering services; and development of custom application software.

It serves automotive OEMs, industrial automation equipment, and security and defense contractors, automated warehouse operators, agriculture and mining companies, automotive Tier 1 suppliers, defense tech companies, and potential customers in several other industrial markets through its website, account based, and business-to-business targeting, as well as participation in trade shows.

MicroVision, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

Stock analysis

Microvision Inc (MVIS) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.10, 15.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.7200 (bear) to $1.37 (bull), the price of $1.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Microvision Inc reported revenue of $1.2M in FY2025 versus $2.5M in FY2021, a compound −16.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$95.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $39.8M Micro · P/S ratio 13.8 · EPS (TTM) $−5.60 · Return on equity −234% · Return on assets (EBIT) −57.4% · Operating margin −1,492% · Revenue (TTM) $2.9M · Revenue growth (YoY) +850%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 2 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 93% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −15%, MVIS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.7200 Fair Value $1.10 Bull $1.37
Price $1.30 · Upside -15.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.7200 $1.10 $1.37 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7200 $1.10 $1.37 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 3
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 64
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 26
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 0
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−74.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −18.4% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−440.6% (2020) → −5,743.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MVIS screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 163 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −15.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −92.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 850.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.72× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 13.85× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Garmin Ltd GRMN $272.51 $299.76 +10% vs MVIS
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY $654.99 $720.49 +10% vs MVIS
MKS Inc MKSI $212.16 $199.16 −6% vs MVIS
Cognex Corporation CGNX $58.22 $38.10 −35% vs MVIS
Fortive Corporation FTV $64.11 $35.15 −45% vs MVIS
Coherent Corp COHR $221.50 $111.01 −50% vs MVIS
Trimble Inc TRMB $63.16 $29.36 −54% vs MVIS
Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS $326.04 $117.27 −64% vs MVIS
Chroma ATE Inc 2360 1,955 TWD 615.50 TWD −69% vs MVIS
AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 ¥64.51 ¥19.61 −70% vs MVIS

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Microvision Inc · Fair Value
$1.10 −15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Microvision Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MVIS

Frequently asked questions

Is Microvision Inc (MVIS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.10 versus a price of $1.30, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MVIS?
Our model-based fair value for Microvision Inc is $1.10 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.30.
What is the quality score of MVIS?
Microvision Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.10 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7200, optimistic scenario $1.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Microvision Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.10, about −15% upside versus a price of $1.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7200, optimistic scenario $1.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Microvision Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9M (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Microvision Inc it is $1.10 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of $1.30. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Microvision Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, MVIS trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.30, fair value $1.10, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MVIS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.10). For Microvision Inc the two are $0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Microvision Inc worth?
The market values Microvision Inc at about $39.8M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is $1.30; our models calculate a fair value of $1.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MVIS?
Our models span a range for Microvision Inc: cautious scenario $0.7200, base $1.10, optimistic $1.37 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price $1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Microvision Inc (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −233.7%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MVIS from its 52-week high?
Microvision Inc trades at $1.30, about 93% below its 52-week high of $18.00 and 15% above the low of $1.13 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Microvision Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Coherent Corp, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Microvision Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price $1.30, calculated fair value $1.10 (−15%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MVIS calculated?
We run Microvision Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Microvision Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $1.30. Our model-based fair value is $1.10, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Microvision Inc right now?
Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.7200 to $1.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Microvision Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
The market capitalisation of Microvision Inc is $39.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Microvision Inc is 13.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Earnings per share at Microvision Inc are $−5.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Microvision Inc is −234% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Microvision Inc is −57.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
The operating margin of Microvision Inc is −1,492% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Microvision Inc (MVIS)?
Revenue at Microvision Inc is growing +850% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Microvision Inc (MVIS) generate?
The free cash flow of Microvision Inc is −$59.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Microvision Inc (MVIS) carry?
The net debt of Microvision Inc is $4.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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