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Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mission Valley Bancorp stock $19.45, price $21.50, that is 9.5% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

MV Mission Valley Bancorp logo Some data Nov 9, 2026

Mission Valley Bancorp

MVLY · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 10% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.1 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 18.6% net margin (TTM)
Profit last quarter +46% vs. a year ago.
Quality 49/100
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Moderate moat 55/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $19.45 · Overvalued
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.50 $6.05 Fair Value $19.45 Jun 2015 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.05 – $22.50 · fair‑value band $17.48 – $25.44 · the $21.50 price screens above the $19.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Mission Valley Bancorp operates as a bank holding company, providing various banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers.

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It offers checking and savings accounts for businesses, branch services, card services, merchant services, personal banking, special banking, and treasury management services.

The company also provides loans, including real estate, small business administration, accounts receivable, advanced restaurant financing, and consumer and other loans, as well as commercial loans comprising revolving lines of credit, term loans, and loans secured by liquid collateral.

In addition, it offers lending services, such as underwriting, processing, closing, servicing, and referral/replacement services to other financial institutions. Mission Valley Bancorp was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Sun Valley, California.

Stock analysis

Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY) currently trades at $21.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.45, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.33 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $21.50 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.96, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $17.48 (bear) to $25.44 (bull), the price of $21.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Mission Valley Bancorp reported revenue of $42.1M in FY2025 versus $22.5M in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0M in FY2025, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $71.9M Micro · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) $2.31 · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 24.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −10%, MVLY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $17.48 Fair Value $19.45 Bull $25.44
Price $21.50 · Downside -9.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.98 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $17.48 $19.45 $25.44 76
Gordon GGM $1.15 $2.04 $2.78 68
DDM Multi-Stage $1.15 $1.87 $2.18 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.15 $2.04 $2.78 68
DDM Multi-Stage $1.15 $1.87 $2.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.39 $31.19 $38.99 63
P/B Multiple $14.61 $19.47 $24.34 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.68 $12.97 $19.35 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.48 $19.45 $25.44 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 55
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 29
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 54
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 84
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 66
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 91
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 80
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

MVLY screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −9.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.8% · Above median
Return on assets 1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 18.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 24.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.60× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.73× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 12.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)21 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)47 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MVLY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MVLY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MVLY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MVLY
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs MVLY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MVLY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs MVLY
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MVLY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MVLY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MVLY

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Mission Valley Bancorp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mission Valley Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MVLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.45 versus a price of $21.50, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MVLY?
Our model-based fair value for Mission Valley Bancorp is $19.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.50.
What is the quality score of MVLY?
Mission Valley Bancorp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.48, optimistic scenario $25.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mission Valley Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.45, about 10% lower versus a price of $21.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.48, optimistic scenario $25.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Mission Valley Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mission Valley Bancorp it is $19.45 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $21.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Mission Valley Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, MVLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.50, fair value $19.45, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MVLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.45). For Mission Valley Bancorp the two are $2.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mission Valley Bancorp worth?
The market values Mission Valley Bancorp at about $71.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $21.50; our models calculate a fair value of $19.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MVLY?
Our models span a range for Mission Valley Bancorp: cautious scenario $17.48, base $19.45, optimistic $25.44 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $21.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MVLY?
Mission Valley Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mission Valley Bancorp (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MVLY from its 52-week high?
Mission Valley Bancorp trades at $21.50, about 4% below its 52-week high of $22.50 and 32% above the low of $16.27 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mission Valley Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mission Valley Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $21.50, calculated fair value $19.45 (−10%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MVLY calculated?
We run Mission Valley Bancorp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mission Valley Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.50. Our model-based fair value is $19.45, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mission Valley Bancorp right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Mission Valley Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The market capitalisation of Mission Valley Bancorp is $71.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mission Valley Bancorp is 1.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Earnings per share at Mission Valley Bancorp are $2.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The net margin of Mission Valley Bancorp is 18.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mission Valley Bancorp is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mission Valley Bancorp is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
The operating margin of Mission Valley Bancorp is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Revenue at Mission Valley Bancorp is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY)?
Earnings per share at Mission Valley Bancorp are growing +45.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mission Valley Bancorp is $5.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mission Valley Bancorp (MVLY) carry?
The net debt of Mission Valley Bancorp is $4.7M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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