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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings BRL 100, price BRL 75.35, upside +32.9%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
N1CL34 · SASpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value R$100.13 · Undervalued (+32.9%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +50.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$44.35 – R$185.36 · fair‑value band R$61.44 – R$132.52 · the R$75.35 price screens below the R$100.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii.
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It offers itineraries to destinations, such as Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, the Caribbean, and Alaska; and inter-island itinerary in Hawaii. The company also provides features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, dining venues, bars and lounges, spas, casino and retail shopping areas, and entertainment choices; shore excursions at each port of call, and air transportation and hotel packages for stays before or after a voyage. It offers its products and services under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.
Stock analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34) currently trades at R$75.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$100.13, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$223.67 per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the R$75.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$16.84, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$61.44 (bear) to R$132.52 (bull), the price of R$75.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported revenue of $9.8B in FY2025 versus $648M in FY2021, a compound +97.3%/yr. Reported net income was $423M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$46.7B (≈ $8.9B) · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) R$6.43 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 29.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Operating margin 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 33%, N1CL34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$61.44
Fair Value R$100.13
Bull R$132.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$4.86 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
n/a
n/a
R$1.38
68
Residual Income
R$30.69
R$40.91
R$72.00
65
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
R$1.38
65
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$32.74
R$228.31
R$320.40
61
Lynch FV
R$117.95
R$168.50
R$219.05
59
PEG = 1.0
R$117.95
R$168.50
R$219.05
55
EPV
n/a
n/a
R$1.38
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$79.44
R$105.92
R$132.39
63
P/S Multiple
R$61.38
R$81.84
R$102.30
58
P/B Multiple
R$61.38
R$81.84
R$102.30
55
EV/EBIT
R$44.06
R$110.00
R$175.95
61
EV/EBITDA
R$97.08
R$180.70
R$264.32
64
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
R$20.60
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$12.57
R$16.84
R$25.14
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$30.69
R$40.91
R$72.00
65
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
R$1.38
65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$156.57
R$223.67
R$290.78
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
36/100
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
5
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
51
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−147% → 13%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~5Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Watch N1CL34, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) Stock Looks Cheap On Current Earnings
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $162.91 | $192.97 | +18% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $160.65 | $176.72 | +10% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $265.86 | $209.94 | −21% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $79.30 | $87.23 | +10% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $264.17 | $290.59 | +10% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $25.07 | $36.68 | +46% |
| Trip.com Group 9961 | HK$309.20 | HK$679.42 | +120% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.50 | $5.23 | −45% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $46.75 | $34.50 | −26% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $63.66 | $36.63 | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$100.13 versus a price of R$75.35, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of N1CL34?
Our model-based fair value for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is R$100.13 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$75.35.
What is the quality score of N1CL34?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$100.13 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$61.44, optimistic scenario R$132.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$100.13, about +33% upside versus a price of R$75.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$61.44, optimistic scenario R$132.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings it is R$100.13 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$75.35. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, N1CL34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$75.35, fair value R$100.13, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of N1CL34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$75.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$100.13). For Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings the two are R$24.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings worth?
The market values Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings at about R$46.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$75.35; our models calculate a fair value of R$100.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about N1CL34?
Our models span a range for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: cautious scenario R$61.44, base R$100.13, optimistic R$132.52 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$75.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is N1CL34 from its 52-week high?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings trades at R$75.35, about 42% below its 52-week high of R$131.04 and 5% above the low of R$72.00 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$100.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$75.35, calculated fair value R$100.13 (+33%), Quality Score 36/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of N1CL34 calculated?
We run Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$100.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$75.35. Our model-based fair value is R$100.13, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range (R$61.44 to R$132.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The market capitalisation of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is R$46.7B (≈ $8.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is 11.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Earnings per share at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings are R$6.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The net margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
The operating margin of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Revenue at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34)?
Earnings per share at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings are growing −9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34) generate?
The free cash flow of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is −$1.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (N1CL34) carry?
The net debt of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is $14.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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