Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $78.8B
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd
RCL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +13.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($141.07 to $412.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.42 – $359.69 · fair‑value band $141.07 – $412.87 · the $320.55 price screens above the $215.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) currently trades at $320.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $215.19, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd generated revenue of $18.4B at a net margin of 24.4%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 49.6%. Net debt stands at $21.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $141.07 (bear case) to $412.87 (bull case); at $320.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -33%, RCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($359.45) versus Asset-Based ($25.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates as a cruise company worldwide. The company operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises brands, which comprise a range of itineraries. As of December 31, 2025, it operated 69 ships. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Full company description
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates as a cruise company worldwide. The company operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises brands, which comprise a range of itineraries. As of December 31, 2025, it operated 69 ships. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd reported revenue of $17.9B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +85.0%/yr. Reported net income was $4.3B in FY2025.
RCL screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Royal Caribbean vs. Norwegian Cruise Line: Pricing Power Divide Sparks Cruise Divergence
- Why Royal Caribbean (RCL) Is Built for Long-Term Growth
Peer Group
Travel Services · 88 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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