Carnival Corporation (CCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $36.2B
Carnival Corporation
CCL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $34.66 to $31.36 (−9.5%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +7.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($13.70 to $62.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.31 – $33.63 · fair‑value band $13.70 – $62.02 · the $28.79 price screens below the $31.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Carnival Corporation (CCL) currently trades at $28.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.36, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carnival Corporation generated revenue of $27.0B at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.9%. Net debt stands at $26.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.70 (bear case) to $62.02 (bull case); at $28.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 9%, CCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($45.59) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other.
Full company description
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company offers its services under the AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brands. It sells its cruises through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, websites, and onboard future cruise consultants. Carnival Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carnival Corporation reported revenue of $26.6B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +93.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025.
Watch CCL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Amazon.com vs. Carnival: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026, the E-Commerce Leader or the Cruise Provider in the Rebounding Travel
- Axon Enterprise vs. Carnival: Should Investors Think Personal Defense or Personal Time in 2026?
Peer Group
Travel Services · 88 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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