Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.9B
Global Business Travel Group
GBTG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.08 to $4.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range $4.40 – $9.56 · fair‑value band $2.08 – $4.44 · the $9.46 price screens above the $3.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) currently trades at $9.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.54, implying the stock looks roughly 62.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Global Business Travel Group generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 35.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.08 (bear case) to $4.44 (bull case); at $9.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -63%, GBTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($5.01) versus Economic Profit ($1.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers the Amex GBT marketplace for fares and rates; travel solutions, such as Amex GBT Egencia for businesses needing a configurable digital travel and expense platform; Complete by SAP Concur and Amex GBT, a co-developed travel and expense solution for businesses; and Amex GBT Neo for businesses preferring customizable global travel. It also provides Amex GBT Select for insight and control in travel spend; Amex GBT Ovation for businesses preferring a higher touch travel solution and personalized corporate travel servicing; and CWTSatoTravel for military and government agencies, as well as related organizations subject to government regulations, policies, and programs. In addition, the company offers professional services, including Amex GBT Meetings & Events for business travelers; and Amex GBT Consulting for guidance and solutions for corporate travel programs, cost savings, traveler experience, and policy compliance. Further, it provides virtual assistants, personalized recommendations, automatic rate optimization tools, and savings identification capabilities through its AI-powered platform; and traveler insights, fare analysis, and data analytics. Global Business Travel Group, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Global Business Travel Group reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $763M in FY2021, a compound +37.4%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025.
GBTG screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) Misses Q2 Earnings Estimates
- Global Business Travel Group, Inc. Q2 Sales Increase
- American Express Global Business Travel Reports Strong Q2 2026 Financial Results
- Global Business Travel Group Stockholders Approve Long Lake Merger Agreement
Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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