Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Global Business Travel Group Inc $4.45, price $9.46, upside -53.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range $4.40 – $9.56 · fair‑value band $2.26 – $5.78 · the $9.46 price screens above the $4.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Global Business Travel Group, Inc. operates as a technology and services company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers the Amex GBT marketplace for fares and rates; travel solutions, such as Amex GBT Egencia for businesses needing a configurable digital travel and expense platform; Complete by SAP Concur and Amex GBT, a co-developed travel and expense solution for businesses; and Amex GBT Neo for businesses preferring customizable global travel. It also provides Amex GBT Select for insight and control in travel spend; Amex GBT Ovation for businesses preferring a higher touch travel solution and personalized corporate travel servicing; and CWTSatoTravel for military and government agencies, as well as related organizations subject to government regulations, policies, and programs. In addition, the company offers professional services, including Amex GBT Meetings & Events for business travelers; and Amex GBT Consulting for guidance and solutions for corporate travel programs, cost savings, traveler experience, and policy compliance. Further, it provides virtual assistants, personalized recommendations, automatic rate optimization tools, and savings identification capabilities through its AI-powered platform; and traveler insights, fare analysis, and data analytics. Global Business Travel Group, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) currently trades at $9.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.45, implying the stock looks roughly 112.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.39 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.46 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.09, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.26 (bear) to $5.78 (bull), the price of $9.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Global Business Travel Group Inc reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $763M in FY2021, a compound +37.4%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0B · P/E ratio 59.1 · P/S ratio 2.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.4% · Operating margin 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, GBTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.26Fair Value $4.45Bull $5.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1170 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−21.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−94% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.8%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.1% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Global Business Travel Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)59.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.08× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF47.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Global Business Travel Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBTG
Frequently asked questions
Is Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.45 versus a price of $9.46, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GBTG?
Our model-based fair value for Global Business Travel Group Inc is $4.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.46.
What is the quality score of GBTG?
Global Business Travel Group Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.45 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.26, optimistic scenario $5.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Global Business Travel Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.45, about −53% upside versus a price of $9.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.26, optimistic scenario $5.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Global Business Travel Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Global Business Travel Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GBTG use?
Our models discount Global Business Travel Group Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Global Business Travel Group Inc that is +29.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Global Business Travel Group Inc grew +27.9 % a year. The price currently implies +29.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Global Business Travel Group Inc (+29.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.10 %: that much free cash flow Global Business Travel Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Global Business Travel Group Inc it is $4.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Global Business Travel Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GBTG trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.46, fair value $4.45, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBTG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.45). For Global Business Travel Group Inc the two are $5.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Global Business Travel Group Inc worth?
The market values Global Business Travel Group Inc at about $5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.46; our models calculate a fair value of $4.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBTG?
Our models span a range for Global Business Travel Group Inc: cautious scenario $2.26, base $4.45, optimistic $5.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBTG?
Global Business Travel Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Global Business Travel Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBTG from its 52-week high?
Global Business Travel Group Inc trades at $9.46, about 1% below its 52-week high of $9.51 and 90% above the low of $4.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Global Business Travel Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Global Business Travel Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.46, calculated fair value $4.45 (−53%), Quality Score 35/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBTG calculated?
We run Global Business Travel Group Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Global Business Travel Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.46. Our model-based fair value is $4.45, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Global Business Travel Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($2.26 to $5.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Global Business Travel Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The market capitalisation of Global Business Travel Group Inc is $5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Global Business Travel Group Inc is 2.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Earnings per share at Global Business Travel Group Inc are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The net margin of Global Business Travel Group Inc is 4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Global Business Travel Group Inc is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Global Business Travel Group Inc is −2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
The operating margin of Global Business Travel Group Inc is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Revenue at Global Business Travel Group Inc is growing +35.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG)?
Earnings per share at Global Business Travel Group Inc are growing −37.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Global Business Travel Group Inc (GBTG) carry?
The net debt of Global Business Travel Group Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026