Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Booking Holdings Inc stock $177, price $169, upside +5.2%, quality 89 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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🚩Regulatory probe into fake listings and phishing on main platform🚩Generative AI agents could disintermediate OTA platform🚩Hotel chains could direct AI bookings bypassing OTAs🚩Antitrust blocks on ecosystem-building acquisitions
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.87 – $230.13 · fair‑value band $124.21 – $230.68 · the $168.72 price screens below the $177.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs.
It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions.
In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants.
Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, payment facilitation, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services.
The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) currently trades at $168.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $246.08 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $168.72 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $24.12, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $124.21 (bear) to $230.68 (bull), the price of $168.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 89/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Booking Holdings Inc reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.2%/yr. Reported net income was $5.4B in FY2025, compounding +46.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $130B Large · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 4.60 · EPS (TTM) $9.02 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 25.5% · Return on equity 226% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 93 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 5%, BKNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$124.21Fair Value $177.45Bull$230.68
Price $168.72 · Upside +5.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $27.7M and none bought.
SalePaulo PisanoCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER4× since Nov 7, 2025: 6,200 shares, avg. $341.06$2.1MOct 15, 2026
SaleRobert J Mylod JrDirector7× since Nov 7, 2025: 7,160 shares, avg. $310.41$2.2MSep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePeter J MillonesEXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL2× since May 26, 2026: 112,550 shares, avg. $183.20$20.6MAug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleVanessa Ames WittmanDirector6× since Nov 17, 2025: 2,670 shares, avg. $278.98$744,872Aug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEwout L SteenbergenCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER20,000 shares at $211.03$4.2MAug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleGlenn D FogelCEO AND PRESIDENT, Director11× since Nov 17, 2025: 21,446 shares, avg. $1,207$25.9MApr 15, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +44.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +43.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 42.5% / −17.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 35%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.19 per share, median 66.6 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.8% a year for the price and +5.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Scale in online travel platforms supports a moderate moat via distribution and data, yet negative shareholders equity and high leverage stand out as key weaknesses.
Main risk: Generative AI agents might book travel directly with suppliers or satisfy user intent without directing traffic to Booking Holdings platforms, reducing commissions and platform necessity.
Bull case: Booking Holdings could integrate its own AI agents like Vayo and leverage fragmented independent hotel inventory plus loyalty programs to retain transactions and even capture value from agentic flows.
Bear case: If AI agents and hotel direct channels mature rapidly, Booking Holdings platforms could see sharply lower volumes and margins as discovery and bookings shift away from OTAs toward suppliers and third-party agents.
Booking Holdings keeps delivering revenue growth and earnings beats on resilient travel demand. European regulators have opened a probe into fake listings and phishing on its main platform, creating fresh uncertainty right before next week's report. Will the underlying business momentum absorb these compliance pressures or will they start to constrain expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score89 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets18.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.7× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)4.60× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow14.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.81× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)40· sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 39
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $177.45 versus a price of $168.72, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BKNG?
Our model-based fair value for Booking Holdings Inc is $177.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $168.72.
What is the quality score of BKNG?
Booking Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 89/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $177.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $124.21, optimistic scenario $230.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Booking Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $177.45, about +5% upside versus a price of $168.72 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $124.21, optimistic scenario $230.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Booking Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $28.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Booking Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Booking Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Booking Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BKNG use?
Our models discount Booking Holdings Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Booking Holdings Inc that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Booking Holdings Inc grew +31.7 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Booking Holdings Inc (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.99 %: that much free cash flow Booking Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Booking Holdings Inc it is $177.45 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $168.72. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Booking Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, BKNG trades below its calculated fair value: price $168.72, fair value $177.45, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($168.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($177.45). For Booking Holdings Inc the two are $8.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Booking Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Booking Holdings Inc at about $130B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $168.72; our models calculate a fair value of $177.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKNG?
Our models span a range for Booking Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $124.21, base $177.45, optimistic $230.68 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $168.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BKNG?
Booking Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $177.45 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.5 (reported for FY2025: 25.5). Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BKNG?
The PEG ratio of Booking Holdings Inc is 0.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Booking Holdings Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 89/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKNG from its 52-week high?
Booking Holdings Inc trades at $168.72, about 23% below its 52-week high of $218.11 and 14% above the low of $147.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $177.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Booking Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, Expedia Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Booking Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $168.72, calculated fair value $177.45 (+5%), Quality Score 89/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKNG calculated?
We run Booking Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $177.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Booking Holdings Inc currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $168.72. Our model-based fair value is $177.45, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Booking Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($124.21 to $230.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) come from?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings Inc grew −20.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −18.9 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Booking Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The market capitalisation of Booking Holdings Inc is $130B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Booking Holdings Inc is 4.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings Inc are $9.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The dividend yield of Booking Holdings Inc is 1.0% (payout 16.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 17.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The net margin of Booking Holdings Inc is 25.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Booking Holdings Inc is 226% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Booking Holdings Inc is 22.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
The operating margin of Booking Holdings Inc is 34.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Revenue at Booking Holdings Inc is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)?
Earnings per share at Booking Holdings Inc are growing +130% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) carry?
The net debt of Booking Holdings Inc is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026