Booking Holdings (BKNG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $142B
Booking Holdings
BKNG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +14.0% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($191.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.02 – $230.69 · fair‑value band $114.03 – $191.78 · the $207.39 price screens above the $152.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Booking Holdings (BKNG) currently trades at $207.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.94, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Booking Holdings generated revenue of $27.7B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 225.7%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $114.03 (bear case) to $191.78 (bull case); at $207.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -26%, BKNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($254.54) versus Dividend Discount ($25.93). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 84 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, payment facilitation, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Booking Holdings reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound +25.2%/yr. Reported net income was $5.4B in FY2025, compounding +46.8%/yr from FY2021.
BKNG screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Airbnb, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Booking projects Q3 2026 room nights up 3%-5% amid Middle East-related flight capacity pressure
- Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG) Beats Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Peer Group
Travel Services · 88 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $55.23 | $19.66 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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