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Expedia Group (EXGR34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Expedia Group BRL 756, price BRL 691, upside +9.3%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Expedia Group
EXGR34 · SAQuality WatchlistQuality growthA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.
·Fair value R$755.54 · Fairly valued (+9.3%)
✓Quality 75/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$224.08 – R$900.00 · fair‑value band R$566.65 – R$944.41 · the R$691.38 price screens below the R$755.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments.
Show more
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Expedia Group (EXGR34) currently trades at R$691.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$755.54, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$981.11 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$691.38 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$135.50, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$566.65 (bear) to R$944.41 (bull), the price of R$691.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Expedia Group reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $8.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +222.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap R$164B (≈ $31.4B) · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) R$29.33 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 71.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 9%, EXGR34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$566.65
Fair Value R$755.54
Bull R$944.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$20.91 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$973.99
R$1,662
R$2,809
78
Growth DCF
R$974.84
R$1,626
R$2,696
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$676.62
R$1,068
R$1,538
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$973.99
R$1,662
R$2,809
78
Owner Earnings
R$483.82
R$817.68
R$1,374
74
5Y Revenue Exit
R$520.17
R$755.96
R$1,052
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$676.62
R$1,068
R$1,538
75
5Y P/E Exit
R$632.90
R$981.11
R$1,360
71
10Y Revenue Exit
R$659.17
R$927.37
R$1,292
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$770.87
R$1,152
R$1,687
68
10Y P/E Exit
R$742.25
R$1,089
R$1,542
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$200.67
R$829.26
R$1,130
64
Lynch FV
R$209.05
R$298.64
R$388.23
61
PEG = 1.0
R$209.05
R$298.64
R$388.23
57
EPV
R$387.84
R$448.90
R$502.32
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$41.88
R$87.07
R$138.13
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$41.88
R$73.42
R$91.39
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$486.91
R$649.21
R$811.52
63
P/S Multiple
R$302.39
R$403.18
R$503.98
58
P/B Multiple
R$87.85
R$117.13
R$146.41
55
EV/EBIT
R$598.47
R$790.79
R$983.10
66
EV/EBITDA
R$580.00
R$766.16
R$952.32
67
EV/Revenue
R$303.76
R$424.71
R$545.67
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$14.64
R$19.62
R$29.28
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$974.84
R$1,626
R$2,696
76
Rev-Margin DCF
R$520.17
R$763.53
R$1,070
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$98.50
R$135.50
R$288.85
70
ROIC Compounder
R$391.43
R$457.24
R$517.76
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$369.09
R$527.27
R$685.45
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
75/100
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
65
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +39.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−29% → 13%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 82% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.0% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.2%
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Carnival Corporation CCL | $25.07 | $36.68 | +46% |
| Trip.com Group 9961 | HK$309.20 | HK$679.42 | +120% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $14.80 | $20.28 | +37% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.50 | $5.23 | −45% |
| MakeMyTrip Limited MMYT | $46.75 | $34.50 | −26% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $63.66 | $36.63 | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Expedia Group (EXGR34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$755.54 versus a price of R$691.38, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EXGR34?
Our model-based fair value for Expedia Group is R$755.54 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$691.38.
What is the quality score of EXGR34?
Expedia Group has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$755.54 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$566.65, optimistic scenario R$944.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expedia Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$755.54, about +9% upside versus a price of R$691.38 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$566.65, optimistic scenario R$944.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Expedia Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Expedia Group pay a dividend?
Expedia Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Expedia Group would have to grow free cash flow by -8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXGR34 use?
Our models discount Expedia Group at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Expedia Group that is -8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Expedia Group (EXGR34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Expedia Group grew +23.2 % a year. The price currently implies -8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Expedia Group (EXGR34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Expedia Group (-8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.18 %: that much free cash flow Expedia Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expedia Group it is R$755.54 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$691.38. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expedia Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, EXGR34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$691.38, fair value R$755.54, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXGR34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$691.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$755.54). For Expedia Group the two are R$64.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expedia Group worth?
The market values Expedia Group at about R$164B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$691.38; our models calculate a fair value of R$755.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXGR34?
Our models span a range for Expedia Group: cautious scenario R$566.65, base R$755.54, optimistic R$944.41 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$691.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is EXGR34 from its 52-week high?
Expedia Group trades at R$691.38, about 23% below its 52-week high of R$900.00 and 28% above the low of R$541.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$755.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expedia Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expedia Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$691.38, calculated fair value R$755.54 (+9%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXGR34 calculated?
We run Expedia Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$755.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Expedia Group currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$691.38. Our model-based fair value is R$755.54, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expedia Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Expedia Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The market capitalisation of Expedia Group is R$164B (≈ $31.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Expedia Group is 23.3 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expedia Group is 2.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Earnings per share at Expedia Group are R$29.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The dividend yield of Expedia Group is 0.2% (payout 5.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The net margin of Expedia Group is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expedia Group is 71.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expedia Group is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
The operating margin of Expedia Group is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Revenue at Expedia Group is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Expedia Group (EXGR34)?
Earnings per share at Expedia Group are growing −27.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Expedia Group (EXGR34) carry?
The net debt of Expedia Group is $748M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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