NBT Bancorp Inc (NBTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.8B
NBT Bancorp Inc
NBTB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.31 – $54.26 · fair‑value band $31.73 – $52.88 · the $52.66 price screens above the $42.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
NBT Bancorp Inc (NBTB) currently trades at $52.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.30, implying the stock looks roughly 19.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NBT Bancorp Inc generated revenue of $697M at a net margin of 26.4%. Revenue grew 21.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at $142M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.73 (bear case) to $52.88 (bull case); at $52.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -20%, NBTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.30) versus Dividend Discount ($20.23). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments.
Full company description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. The company offers demand deposit, savings, interest-bearing checking, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts; and indirect and direct consumer loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, residential mortgages, business banking loans, commercial and industrial loans, agricultural loans, commercial construction loans, commercial real estate loans, indirect auto loans, and other consumer loans, as well as agricultural lending, personal lines of credit, overdraft protection, and second mortgage loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan and health savings account recordkeeping and administration, and actuarial services. In addition, the company offers insurance products, such as personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance; and other products and services through a network of ATM locations and 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. Further, it operates as a property management and passive investment company, as well as investment advisor that provides investment management and financial consulting services. The company serves retail, commercial, and municipal customers. It operates in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central and northwestern Connecticut. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NBT Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $867M in FY2025 versus $495M in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was $169M in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
NBTB screens 20% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NBTB Q2 Deep Dive: Loan Growth and Deposit Mix Drive Mixed Results
- NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Looks Fully Valued After Q2 Earnings And Dividend Hike
- NBT Bancorp Inc (NBTB) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Earnings Growth and Dividend ...
- NBT Bancorp Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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