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thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €950M

TN thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA NCH2 · XETRA
Price€7.91
Fair Value€1.18
Upside-85.1%
Quality49/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -12.0% net margin
generates free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 12/100
Evidence: High Range €0.8200 – €1.53 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +6.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€1.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (€0.8200 to €1.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

€24.02 €6.91 Fair Value €1.18 Jul 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

37‑month range €6.91 – €24.02 · fair‑value band €0.8200 – €1.53 · the €7.91 price screens above the €1.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) currently trades at €7.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.18, implying the stock looks roughly 85.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA generated revenue of €730M at a net margin of -1.0%. Revenue declined 43.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €656M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €0.8200 (bear case) to €1.53 (bull case); at €7.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -85%, NCH2 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €3.81 €3.50 €2.24 76
Growth DCF €6.51 €7.22 €8.55 72
Gordon GGM €0.6200 €1.11 €1.53 70
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €6.58 €7.11 €8.71 38
5Y Revenue Exit €6.36 €7.02 €8.38 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €6.21 €6.70 €7.67 41
5Y P/E Exit €6.18 €6.94 €7.94 38
10Y Revenue Exit €6.41 €7.49 €8.14 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €6.34 €7.18 €8.56 37
10Y P/E Exit €6.32 €7.13 €8.39 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.2500 €1.73 €2.42 54
Lynch FV €0.6400 €0.9200 €1.20 50
PEG = 1.0 €0.6400 €0.9200 €1.20 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.6200 €1.11 €1.53 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.6200 €1.01 €1.18 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.5700 €0.7600 €0.9600 63
P/S Multiple €0.4600 €0.6200 €0.7700 58
P/B Multiple €0.4600 €0.6200 €0.7700 55
EV/EBITDA €6.02 €6.23 €6.43 54
EV/Revenue €6.19 €6.53 €6.86 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.98 €3.99 €5.96 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €6.51 €7.22 €8.55 72
Rev-Margin DCF €6.37 €7.25 €8.89 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income €3.81 €3.50 €2.24 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €0.8200 €1.18 €1.53 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€7.22) versus Multiples (€0.7600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €564M
Revenue growth (YoY) -43.9%
Net margin -1.0%
Return on equity -9.4%
Free cash flow €10.8M FY2025
Operating margin -129%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.5400
EPS growth (YoY) -95.2%
Net cash €656M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA engages in the development, engineering, procurement, commissioning, and licensing of electrolysis technologies in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Chlor-Alkali (CA) and Green Hydrogen (gH2) segments.

Full company description

thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA engages in the development, engineering, procurement, commissioning, and licensing of electrolysis technologies in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Chlor-Alkali (CA) and Green Hydrogen (gH2) segments. The company is involved in the development, planning, and construction of new-build electrolysis plants for producing green hydrogen for industrial applications; provision of services for chlor-alkali electrolysis, such as planning and construction of new plants. It also offers the BM 2.7 single-element technology and BiTAC filter press technology. The company was formerly known as thyssenkrupp Uhde Chlorine Engineers GmbH. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dortmund, Germany. thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA operates as a subsidiary of Thyssenkrupp Projekt 1 GmbH.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA reported revenue of €845M in FY2025 versus €319M in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was €4.6M in FY2025, compounding −31.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€845M
Latest YoY
−1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.2%
Revenue +27.5%/yr
FY21 €319M
FY22 €383M
FY23 €653M
FY24 €862M
FY25 €845M
Net income −31.8%/yr
FY21 €21.3M
FY22 €6.0M
FY23 €22.5M
FY24 €11.0M
FY25 €4.6M

NCH2 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCH2

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -129% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -77% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.95× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 101.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 22
PAST 0 · sector 28
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 18 · sector 27

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Cummins India Limited CUMMINSIND ₹5,315 ₹1,355 -75%
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Siemens Limited SIEMENS ₹4,019 ₹746.83 -81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.18 versus a price of €7.91, about −85% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCH2?
Our model-based fair value for thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is €1.18 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €7.91.
What is the quality score of NCH2?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €730M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NCH2?
The net profit margin of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is about -1.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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