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thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA €3.34, price €8.76, upside -61.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA
NCH2 · XETRAWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value €3.34 · Strongly overvalued (−61.9%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.2 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -12.0% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.5%
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range €6.91 – €24.02 · the €8.76 price screens above the €3.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA engages in the development, engineering, procurement, commissioning, and licensing of electrolysis technologies in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Chlor-Alkali (CA) and Green Hydrogen (gH2) segments.
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thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA engages in the development, engineering, procurement, commissioning, and licensing of electrolysis technologies in Germany, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Chlor-Alkali (CA) and Green Hydrogen (gH2) segments. The company is involved in the development, planning, and construction of new-build electrolysis plants for producing green hydrogen for industrial applications; provision of services for chlor-alkali electrolysis, such as planning and construction of new plants. It also offers the BM 2.7 single-element technology and BiTAC filter press technology. The company was formerly known as thyssenkrupp Uhde Chlorine Engineers GmbH. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dortmund, Germany. thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA operates as a subsidiary of Thyssenkrupp Projekt 1 GmbH.
Stock analysis
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) currently trades at €8.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.34, 61.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €7.31 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the €8.76 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €0.7600, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA reported revenue of €845M in FY2025 versus €319M in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was €4.6M in FY2025, compounding −31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.1B · P/S ratio 1.69 · EPS (TTM) €−0.5400 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin −129% · Revenue (TTM) €564M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −62%, NCH2 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.34
Fair Value €3.34
Bull €3.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€6.72
€7.31
€9.10
80
Growth DCF
€6.63
€7.44
€8.91
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
€6.25
€6.76
€7.74
74
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€6.72
€7.31
€9.10
80
5Y Revenue Exit
€6.41
€7.07
€8.44
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€6.25
€6.76
€7.74
74
5Y P/E Exit
€6.23
€7.00
€8.01
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€6.49
€7.60
€8.25
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
€6.41
€7.29
€8.72
67
10Y P/E Exit
€6.40
€7.24
€8.54
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€0.2500
€1.73
€2.42
63
Lynch FV
€0.6400
€0.9200
€1.20
61
PEG = 1.0
€0.6400
€0.9200
€1.20
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€0.5700
€0.7600
€0.9600
63
P/S Multiple
€0.4600
€0.6200
€0.7700
58
P/B Multiple
€0.4600
€0.6200
€0.7700
55
EV/EBITDA
€6.02
€6.23
€6.43
64
EV/Revenue
€6.19
€6.53
€6.86
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.98
€3.99
€5.96
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€6.63
€7.44
€8.91
77
Rev-Margin DCF
€6.41
€7.31
€8.98
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€3.78
€3.39
€3.18
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€0.8200
€1.18
€1.53
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Profitability
23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 0%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−12.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.9% a year for the price and −14.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−15.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−15.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−13.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−11.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)−8.9%
NCH2 screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 806 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $957.63 | $142.61 | −85% |
| SIE SIE | €278.30 | €150.42 | −46% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $433.27 | $173.12 | −60% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $970.37 | $494.81 | −49% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $158.23 | $62.54 | −60% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $274.32 | $153.33 | −44% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $525.06 | $359.11 | −32% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $250.74 | $125.77 | −50% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $434.15 | $139.31 | −68% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 378.00 | kr 193.59 | −49% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.34 versus a price of €8.76, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCH2?
Our model-based fair value for thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is €3.34 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.76.
What is the quality score of NCH2?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.34 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 20 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.34, about −62% upside versus a price of €8.76 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €564M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA would have to grow free cash flow by +26.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCH2 use?
Our models discount thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA that is +26.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA grew +27.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (+26.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.98 %: that much free cash flow thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA it is €3.34 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €8.76. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NCH2 trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.76, fair value €3.34, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCH2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.34). For thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA the two are €5.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA worth?
The market values thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA at about €1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €8.76; our models calculate a fair value of €3.34 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Balance-sheet figures for thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −9.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCH2 from its 52-week high?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA trades at €8.76, about 25% below its 52-week high of €11.65 and 27% above the low of €6.91 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €8.76, calculated fair value €3.34 (−62%), Quality Score 49/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCH2 calculated?
We run thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was €8.76. Our model-based fair value is €3.34, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA
How large is the market capitalisation of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The market capitalisation of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is €1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is 1.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Earnings per share at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA are €−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The net margin of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
The operating margin of thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is −129% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Revenue at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA is growing −76.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2)?
Earnings per share at thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA are growing −95.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) hold?
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA holds more cash than debt, €656M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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