Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 4, 2026: fair value of Nickel Asia Corporation $0.08, price $0.10, upside -20.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
44‑month range $0.0104 – $0.1000 · fair‑value band $0.0500 – $0.1200 · the $0.1000 price screens above the $0.0800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nickel Asia Corporation engages in the mining and exploration of nickel saprolite, limonite ore, limestone, and quarry materials in the Philippines. It operates through Mining, Services, and Power segments. The company operates six mines, including the Rio Tuba, Taganito, Tagana-an, Cagdianao, Manicani, and Dinapigue mines located in the Philippines.
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Nickel Asia Corporation engages in the mining and exploration of nickel saprolite, limonite ore, limestone, and quarry materials in the Philippines. It operates through Mining, Services, and Power segments. The company operates six mines, including the Rio Tuba, Taganito, Tagana-an, Cagdianao, Manicani, and Dinapigue mines located in the Philippines. It also has other properties in various stages of exploration for nickel ore, as well as for gold and copper. In addition, the company involved in the chartering out of landing craft transport, and the provision of marine services. Further, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and mining of metallic and non-metallic minerals, including nickel, iron, cobalt, chromite, and other associated mineral deposits; general engineering construction activities; and handling of materials in connection with construction or manufacturing, warehousing, distribution or disposal activities, and other related activities. Additionally, it involved in the renewable energy generation; and infrastructure, trading, manufacturing, real estate, and agribusiness activities. Nickel Asia Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Taguig City, the Philippines.
Stock analysis
Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) currently trades at $0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0800, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $0.1200 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.1000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0500 (bear) to $0.1200 (bull), the price of $0.1000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nickel Asia Corporation reported revenue of 28.4B PHP in FY2025 versus 26.4B PHP in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 6.2B PHP in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −20%, NCKAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0500Fair Value $0.0800Bull $0.1200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 11.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 39%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 66% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in PHP, Philippines: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 3.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.5% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 435 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nickel Asia Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCKAF
Frequently asked questions
Is Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0800 versus the last price from Jun 4, 2026 of $0.1000, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCKAF?
Our model-based fair value for Nickel Asia Corporation is $0.0800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 4, 2026): $0.1000.
What is the quality score of NCKAF?
Nickel Asia Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0500, optimistic scenario $0.1200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nickel Asia Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0800, about −20% upside versus the last price from Jun 4, 2026 of $0.1000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0500, optimistic scenario $0.1200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Nickel Asia Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.7B PHP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nickel Asia Corporation pay a dividend?
Nickel Asia Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nickel Asia Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +31.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCKAF use?
Our models discount Nickel Asia Corporation at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nickel Asia Corporation that is +31.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nickel Asia Corporation grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +31.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nickel Asia Corporation (+31.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.78 %: that much free cash flow Nickel Asia Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nickel Asia Corporation it is $0.0800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1000. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nickel Asia Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NCKAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1000, fair value $0.0800, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCKAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0800). For Nickel Asia Corporation the two are $0.0200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nickel Asia Corporation worth?
The market values Nickel Asia Corporation at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCKAF?
Our models span a range for Nickel Asia Corporation: cautious scenario $0.0500, base $0.0800, optimistic $0.1200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCKAF?
Nickel Asia Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.0800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nickel Asia Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Nickel Asia Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nickel Asia Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1000, calculated fair value $0.0800 (−20%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCKAF calculated?
We run Nickel Asia Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nickel Asia Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 4, 2026 and stands at $0.1000. Our model-based fair value is $0.0800, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nickel Asia Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.0500 to $0.1200) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nickel Asia Corporation grew −0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nickel Asia Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The market capitalisation of Nickel Asia Corporation is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nickel Asia Corporation is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Earnings per share at Nickel Asia Corporation are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The dividend yield of Nickel Asia Corporation is 2.3% (payout 23.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The net margin of Nickel Asia Corporation is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nickel Asia Corporation is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nickel Asia Corporation is 18.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
The operating margin of Nickel Asia Corporation is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Revenue at Nickel Asia Corporation is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF)?
Earnings per share at Nickel Asia Corporation are growing −25.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nickel Asia Corporation (NCKAF) hold?
Nickel Asia Corporation holds more cash than debt, 884M PHP net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026