Netflix, Inc (NFLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $309B
Netflix, Inc
NFLX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($36.69 to $105.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.64 – $133.91 · fair‑value band $36.69 – $105.58 · the $73.69 price screens above the $49.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Netflix, Inc (NFLX) currently trades at $73.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.35, implying the stock looks roughly 33.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Netflix, Inc generated revenue of $46.9B at a net margin of 28.5%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 48.5%. Net debt stands at $5.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.69 (bear case) to $105.58 (bull case); at $73.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -33%, NFLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($86.86) versus Asset-Based ($4.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages.
Full company description
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services worldwide. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, games, and live programming across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Netflix, Inc reported revenue of $45.2B in FY2025 versus $29.7B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0B in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
NFLX screens 33% overvalued. Compare with The Walt Disney Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Catalyst Watch: Inflation reads, AMAT earnings, Google Pixel event, and MLB on Netflix
- Netflix (NFLX) Stock May Be 26% Undervalued Despite New Franchise Rights
Peer Group
Entertainment · 267 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €18.91 | €14.78 | -22% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| Oriental Pearl Group 600637 | ¥7.86 | ¥4.38 | -44% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹235.99 | ₹61.98 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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