Roku, Inc (ROKU) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $20.8B
Roku, Inc
ROKU · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $36.09 to $14.73 (−59.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $479.50 · fair‑value band $13.73 – $18.42 · the $150.07 price screens above the $14.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Roku, Inc (ROKU) currently trades at $150.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.73, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Roku, Inc generated revenue of $5.0B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 22.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $715M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.73 (bear case) to $18.42 (bull case); at $150.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -90%, ROKU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($95.72) versus Multiples ($13.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Devices. Its streaming platform allows users to find and access TV shows, movies, news, sports, and others, as well as offers digital advertising services.
Full company description
Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Devices. Its streaming platform allows users to find and access TV shows, movies, news, sports, and others, as well as offers digital advertising services. The company also sells streaming players, Roku-branded TVs, smart home products and services, audio products, and related accessories. Roku, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Roku, Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was $88.4M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
ROKU screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Don’t Chase Roku Stock at New 3-Year Highs
- NFLX vs. ROKU: Which Ad-Supported Streaming Stock Has an Edge Now?
- Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It
- Roku (ROKU) Platform Revenue Jumps 28% As Advertiser Growth Offsets Device Weakness
Peer Group
Entertainment · 267 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.77 | C$2.96 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €18.91 | €14.78 | -22% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹235.99 | ₹61.98 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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