Netflix Inc (NFLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Netflix Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.80 – C$51.66 · fair‑value band C$2.50 – C$5.86 · the C$29.03 price screens above the C$3.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, and games across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices.
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Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. The company offers television (TV) series, documentaries, feature films, and games across various genres and languages. It also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. The company operates approximately in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Stock analysis
Netflix Inc CDR (NFLX) currently trades at C$29.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$3.92, implying the stock looks roughly 640.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$1.94 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$29.03 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$0.9200, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$2.50 (bear) to C$5.86 (bull), the price of C$29.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Netflix Inc CDR reported revenue of $45.2B in FY2025 versus $29.7B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0B in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$4.5T (≈ $3.2T) · P/E ratio 322.6 · P/S ratio 78.4 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0900 · Net margin 24.3% · Return on equity 42.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6% · Operating margin 28.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −87%, NFLX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (C$0.1200 to C$5.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear C$2.50Fair Value C$3.92Bull C$5.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0634 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 30%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 265 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)322.6× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)74.99× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF343.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG15.11× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)86· sector 10
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)75· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$3.92 versus a price of C$29.03, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NFLX?
Our model-based fair value for Netflix Inc CDR is C$3.92 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$29.03.
What is the quality score of NFLX?
Netflix Inc CDR has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$3.92 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$2.50, optimistic scenario C$5.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Netflix Inc CDR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$3.92, about −87% upside versus a price of C$29.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$2.50, optimistic scenario C$5.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Netflix Inc CDR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$43.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Netflix Inc CDR would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NFLX use?
Our models discount Netflix Inc CDR at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Netflix Inc CDR that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Netflix Inc (NFLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Netflix Inc CDR grew +12.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Netflix Inc (NFLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Netflix Inc CDR (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.72 %: that much free cash flow Netflix Inc CDR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Netflix Inc CDR it is C$3.92 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$29.03. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Netflix Inc CDR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NFLX trades above its calculated fair value: price C$29.03, fair value C$3.92, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NFLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$29.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$3.92). For Netflix Inc CDR the two are C$25.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Netflix Inc CDR worth?
The market values Netflix Inc CDR at about C$4.5T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$29.03; our models calculate a fair value of C$3.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NFLX?
Our models span a range for Netflix Inc CDR: cautious scenario C$2.50, base C$3.92, optimistic C$5.86 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$29.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NFLX?
Netflix Inc CDR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 322.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$3.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 15.1, P/S 75.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NFLX?
The PEG ratio of Netflix Inc CDR is 15.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Netflix Inc CDR (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 42.9%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NFLX from its 52-week high?
Netflix Inc CDR trades at C$29.03, about 44% below its 52-week high of C$51.68 and 2% above the low of C$28.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$3.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Netflix Inc CDR?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, Universal Music Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Netflix Inc CDR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$29.03, calculated fair value C$3.92 (−87%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NFLX calculated?
We run Netflix Inc CDR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$3.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Netflix Inc CDR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Netflix Inc CDR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (C$2.50 to C$5.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Netflix Inc CDR
How large is the market capitalisation of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The market capitalisation of Netflix Inc CDR is C$4.5T (≈ $3.2T). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Netflix Inc CDR is 78.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Earnings per share at Netflix Inc CDR are C$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 322.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The net margin of Netflix Inc CDR is 24.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Netflix Inc CDR is 42.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Netflix Inc CDR is 16.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
The operating margin of Netflix Inc CDR is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Revenue at Netflix Inc CDR is growing +17.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Netflix Inc (NFLX)?
Earnings per share at Netflix Inc CDR are growing +8.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Netflix Inc (NFLX) carry?
The net debt of Netflix Inc CDR is C$5.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 13, 2026