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Neurogene Inc (NGNE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Neurogene Inc $13.35, price $30.93, upside -56.9%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US64135M1053

NI Neurogene Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Neurogene Inc

NGNE · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $13.35 · Strongly overvalued (−57%)
!Quality 18/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$205.00 $7.34 Fair Value $13.35 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.34 – $205.00 · fair‑value band $8.81 – $16.68 · the $30.93 price screens above the $13.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Neurogene Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops genetic medicines for rare neurological diseases.

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Neurogene Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops genetic medicines for rare neurological diseases. The company's product candidates include NGN-401 that is packaged in an adeno-associated virus 9, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the treatment of Rett syndrome; and NGN-101, a conventional gene therapy candidate that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat CLN5 Batten disease. It has a license agreement with The University of Edinburgh, Virovek, Inc., Sigma-Aldrich Co. LLC., and Leland Stanford Junior University. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Neurogene Inc (NGNE) currently trades at $30.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.35, implying the stock looks roughly 131.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $8.81 (bear) to $16.68 (bull), the price of $30.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Neurogene Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$90.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $655M · EPS (TTM) $−4.53 · Return on equity −37.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.4% · Free cash flow −$78.4M · Net cash $94.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −57%, NGNE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.81 Fair Value $13.35 Bull $16.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $8.38 $11.23 $16.76 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.38 $11.23 $16.76 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NGNE screens 132% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −57% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −24% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.47× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Neurogene Inc · Fair Value
$13.35 −132%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neurogene Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGNE

Frequently asked questions

Is Neurogene Inc (NGNE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.35 versus a price of $30.93, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGNE?
Our model-based fair value for Neurogene Inc is $13.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.93.
What is the quality score of NGNE?
Neurogene Inc has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.81, optimistic scenario $16.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neurogene Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.35, about −57% upside versus a price of $30.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.81, optimistic scenario $16.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neurogene Inc it is $13.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $30.93. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neurogene Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NGNE trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.93, fair value $13.35, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGNE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.35). For Neurogene Inc the two are $17.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neurogene Inc worth?
The market values Neurogene Inc at about $655M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $30.93; our models calculate a fair value of $13.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGNE?
Our models span a range for Neurogene Inc: cautious scenario $8.81, base $13.35, optimistic $16.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $30.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neurogene Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −37.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGNE from its 52-week high?
Neurogene Inc trades at $30.93, about 28% below its 52-week high of $42.84 and 89% above the low of $16.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neurogene Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neurogene Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $30.93, calculated fair value $13.35 (−57%), Quality Score 18/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGNE calculated?
We run Neurogene Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Neurogene Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $30.93. Our model-based fair value is $13.35, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neurogene Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($8.81 to $16.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Neurogene Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The market capitalisation of Neurogene Inc is $655M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Earnings per share at Neurogene Inc are $−4.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neurogene Inc is −37.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neurogene Inc is −37.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Neurogene Inc (NGNE) generate?
The free cash flow of Neurogene Inc is −$78.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Neurogene Inc (NGNE) hold?
Neurogene Inc holds more cash than debt, $94.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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