Neurogene Inc (NGNE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Neurogene Inc stock $12.40, price $25.31, that is 51.0% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.34 – $164.80 · fair‑value band $8.18 – $15.49 · the $25.31 price screens above the $12.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Neurogene Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops genetic medicines for rare neurological diseases.
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The company's product candidates include NGN-401 that is packaged in an adeno-associated virus 9, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the treatment of Rett syndrome; and NGN-101, a conventional gene therapy candidate that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat CLN5 Batten disease.
It has a license agreement with The University of Edinburgh, Virovek, Inc., Sigma-Aldrich Co. LLC., and Leland Stanford Junior University. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Neurogene Inc (NGNE) currently trades at $25.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.40, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $8.18 (bear) to $15.49 (bull), the price of $25.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Neurogene Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$90.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $571M Small · EPS (TTM) $−5.04 · Return on equity −45.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.4% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$78.4M · Net cash $94.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, NGNE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.18Fair Value $12.40Bull$15.49
Price $25.31 · Downside -51.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $339,952 and none bought.
SaleChristine Mikail CvijicPresident and CFO, Director6× since Feb 27, 2026: 30,603 shares, avg. $29.41$900,010Jul 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRachel McMinnChief Executive Officer, Director3,352 shares at $22.07$73,979Mar 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJulie JordanChief Medical Officer828 shares at $21.89$18,125Mar 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStuart CobbChief Scientific Officer6,797 shares at $20.81$141,446Mar 13, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−31.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neurogene Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGNE
Frequently asked questions
Is Neurogene Inc (NGNE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.40 versus a price of $25.31, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGNE?
Our model-based fair value for Neurogene Inc is $12.40 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.31.
What is the quality score of NGNE?
Neurogene Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.40 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.18, optimistic scenario $15.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neurogene Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.40, about 51% lower versus a price of $25.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.18, optimistic scenario $15.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neurogene Inc it is $12.40 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $25.31. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Neurogene Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NGNE trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.31, fair value $12.40, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGNE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.40). For Neurogene Inc the two are $12.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neurogene Inc worth?
The market values Neurogene Inc at about $571M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $25.31; our models calculate a fair value of $12.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGNE?
Our models span a range for Neurogene Inc: cautious scenario $8.18, base $12.40, optimistic $15.49 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $25.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neurogene Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −45.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGNE from its 52-week high?
Neurogene Inc trades at $25.31, about 41% below its 52-week high of $42.84 and 55% above the low of $16.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neurogene Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neurogene Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $25.31, calculated fair value $12.40 (−51%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGNE calculated?
We run Neurogene Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Neurogene Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $25.31. Our model-based fair value is $12.40, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neurogene Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($8.18 to $15.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Neurogene Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The market capitalisation of Neurogene Inc is $571M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
Earnings per share at Neurogene Inc are $−5.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neurogene Inc is −45.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neurogene Inc (NGNE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neurogene Inc is −37.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Neurogene Inc (NGNE) generate?
The free cash flow of Neurogene Inc is −$78.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Neurogene Inc (NGNE) hold?
Neurogene Inc holds more cash than debt, $94.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026
