NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NIOX Group PLC £0.74, price £0.68, upside +9.1%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.2615 – £0.7409 · fair‑value band £0.5400 – £0.9200 · the £0.6780 price screens below the £0.7400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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NIOX Group Plc engages in the design, development, and commercialization of medical devices for the diagnosis, monitoring, and management of asthma and COPD worldwide.
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NIOX Group Plc engages in the design, development, and commercialization of medical devices for the diagnosis, monitoring, and management of asthma and COPD worldwide. The company offers NIOX VERO, a non-invasive and point-of-care system that comprises a small portable device, sensors, individual disposable mouthpieces, and breathing handles for the measurement of fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) level in patients. The company was formerly known as Circassia Group Plc and changed its name to NIOX Group Plc in September 2022. NIOX Group Plc was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Oxford, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) currently trades at £0.6780, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.7400, implying the stock looks roughly 8.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £0.5400 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the £0.6780 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.1200, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.5400 (bear) to £0.9200 (bull), the price of £0.6780 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NIOX Group PLC reported revenue of £48.7M in FY2025 versus £27.9M in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was £7.0M in FY2025, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 289M GBX · P/E ratio 33.9 · P/S ratio 4.87 · EPS (TTM) £0.0200 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 9%, NIOX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.5400Fair Value £0.7400Bull £0.9200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0033 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.3% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−72% → 22%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 365 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NIOX Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NIOX
Frequently asked questions
Is NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.7400 versus a price of £0.6780, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NIOX?
Our model-based fair value for NIOX Group PLC is £0.7400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.6780.
What is the quality score of NIOX?
NIOX Group PLC has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.7400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.5400, optimistic scenario £0.9200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NIOX Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.7400, about +9% upside versus a price of £0.6780 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £0.5400, optimistic scenario £0.9200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
NIOX Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £48.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NIOX Group PLC pay a dividend?
NIOX Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NIOX Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NIOX use?
Our models discount NIOX Group PLC at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NIOX Group PLC that is +11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NIOX Group PLC grew +15.3 % a year. The price currently implies +11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NIOX Group PLC (+11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.40 %: that much free cash flow NIOX Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NIOX Group PLC it is £0.7400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £0.6780. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NIOX Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NIOX trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.6780, fair value £0.7400, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIOX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.6780); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.7400). For NIOX Group PLC the two are £0.0620 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NIOX Group PLC worth?
The market values NIOX Group PLC at about 289M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £0.6780; our models calculate a fair value of £0.7400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NIOX?
Our models span a range for NIOX Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.5400, base £0.7400, optimistic £0.9200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £0.6780). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NIOX?
NIOX Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.7400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.2, P/S 7.8, EV/EBITDA 25.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Balance-sheet figures for NIOX Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIOX from its 52-week high?
NIOX Group PLC trades at £0.6780, about 8% below its 52-week high of £0.7409 and 28% above the low of £0.5303 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.7400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NIOX Group PLC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Medtronic plc, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NIOX Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £0.6780, calculated fair value £0.7400 (+9%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIOX calculated?
We run NIOX Group PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.7400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. NIOX Group PLC currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.6780. Our model-based fair value is £0.7400, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NIOX Group PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of NIOX Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The market capitalisation of NIOX Group PLC is 289M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NIOX Group PLC is 4.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Earnings per share at NIOX Group PLC are £0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The dividend yield of NIOX Group PLC is 2.3% (payout 77.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The net margin of NIOX Group PLC is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NIOX Group PLC is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NIOX Group PLC is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
The operating margin of NIOX Group PLC is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Revenue at NIOX Group PLC is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NIOX Group PLC (NIOX)?
Earnings per share at NIOX Group PLC are growing +43.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NIOX Group PLC (NIOX) hold?
NIOX Group PLC holds more cash than debt, 18.9M GBX net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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