Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited ₹10.45, price ₹72.98, upside -85.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range ₹68.40 – ₹100.00 · the ₹72.98 price screens above the ₹10.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited provides health insurance products in India.
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Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited provides health insurance products in India. It offers health insurance plans, such as individual, family, NRIs, senior citizens, personal accident, critical illness; travel insurance, including international and studying abroad insurance plans; and corporate insurance comprising group and start up health, group personal accident and OPD coverage, and group health insurance claim process. The company was formerly known as Max Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited and changed its name to Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited in July 2021. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Gurugram, India. Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is a subsidiary of Bupa Singapore Holdings Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) currently trades at ₹72.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹10.45, 85.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ₹11.76 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the ₹72.98 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ₹9.19, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited reported revenue of ₹66.9B in FY2026 versus ₹18.4B in FY2022, a compound +38.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹160B (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 103.0 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.7086 · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −86%, NIVABUPA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹10.45Fair Value ₹10.45Bull ₹10.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.3599 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +40.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 58% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.7% a year for the price and +17.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−85.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)103.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.01× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.90× · Pricier than median
P/FCF18.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NIVABUPA
Frequently asked questions
Is Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹10.45 versus a price of ₹72.98, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NIVABUPA?
Our model-based fair value for Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is ₹10.45 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹72.98.
What is the quality score of NIVABUPA?
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹10.45 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹10.45, about −86% upside versus a price of ₹72.98 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹84.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +38.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NIVABUPA use?
Our models discount Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited grew +38.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.36 %: that much free cash flow Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited it is ₹10.45 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹72.98. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NIVABUPA trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹72.98, fair value ₹10.45, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIVABUPA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹72.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹10.45). For Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited the two are ₹62.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited worth?
The market values Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited at about ₹160B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹72.98; our models calculate a fair value of ₹10.45 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of NIVABUPA?
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 103.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹10.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 31.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIVABUPA from its 52-week high?
Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited trades at ₹72.98, about 17% below its 52-week high of ₹88.36 and 7% above the low of ₹68.40 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹10.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹72.98, calculated fair value ₹10.45 (−86%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIVABUPA calculated?
We run Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹10.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹72.98. Our model-based fair value is ₹10.45, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹10.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The market capitalisation of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is ₹160B (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is 2.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Earnings per share at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited are ₹0.7086 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 103.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The net margin of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is 2.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is 2.7% (avg 2y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
The operating margin of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Revenue at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is growing +26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA)?
Earnings per share at Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited are growing +90.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited (NIVABUPA) carry?
The net debt of Niva Bupa Health Insurance Company Limited is ₹913M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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