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Prudential plc (PUKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 13, 2026: fair value of Prudential plc MXN 441, price MXN 545, upside -19.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Prudential plc
PUKN · MXOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value 441.05 MXN · Overvalued (−19.1%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −13.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 74/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 438.89 MXN – 862.10 MXN · fair‑value band 322.14 MXN – 667.98 MXN · the 545.00 MXN price screens above the 441.05 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Prudential plc, through its subsidiaries, provides life and health insurance, and asset management solutions to individuals in Asia and Africa. It offers savings and investments products; and wealth, health, and protection products. The company was founded in 1848 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Prudential plc (PUKN) currently trades at 545.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 441.05 MXN, 19.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 521.69 MXN per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 545.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 139.12 MXN, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 322.14 MXN (bear) to 667.98 MXN (bull), the price of 545.00 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Prudential plc reported revenue of $27.4B in FY2025 versus $26.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 680B MXN (≈ $37.5B) · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) 45.94 MXN · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 20.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −19%, PUKN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 322.14 MXN
Fair Value 441.05 MXN
Bull 667.98 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (34.54 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
370.58 MXN
521.69 MXN
996.71 MXN
69
Gordon GGM
79.35 MXN
164.98 MXN
261.72 MXN
64
DDM Multi-Stage
79.35 MXN
139.12 MXN
173.15 MXN
64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
79.35 MXN
164.98 MXN
261.72 MXN
64
DDM Multi-Stage
79.35 MXN
139.12 MXN
173.15 MXN
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
564.27 MXN
752.36 MXN
940.46 MXN
63
P/B Multiple
307.31 MXN
409.74 MXN
512.18 MXN
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
146.34 MXN
196.09 MXN
292.67 MXN
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
370.58 MXN
521.69 MXN
996.71 MXN
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+69.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’19
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+46.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
2025 sits 153% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 23.9%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.0% a year for the price.
PUKN screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Prudential PLC's Dividend Analysis
- Prudential PLC (PUK) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic Progress
- Prudential, HSBC Shares Tumble on China Insurance Tax Report
- AIA, Prudential Chase Asia's Wealth Insurance Boom
Compare Prudential plc with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.43 | ¥49.98 | +34% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥53.29 | ¥67.19 | +26% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.75 | HK$41.69 | −43% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | $42.59 | $27.37 | −36% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $94.35 | $54.39 | −42% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$93.34 | C$42.07 | −55% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $111.18 | $67.02 | −40% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹409.05 | ₹299.19 | −27% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882 | 110.50 TWD | 71.47 TWD | −35% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.88 | ¥48.28 | +56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Prudential plc (PUKN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 441.05 MXN versus the last price from Jul 13, 2026 of 545.00 MXN, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PUKN?
Our model-based fair value for Prudential plc is 441.05 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 13, 2026): 545.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of PUKN?
Prudential plc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 441.05 MXN (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 322.14 MXN, optimistic scenario 667.98 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prudential plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 441.05 MXN, about −19% upside versus the last price from Jul 13, 2026 of 545.00 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 322.14 MXN, optimistic scenario 667.98 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Prudential plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Prudential plc pay a dividend?
Prudential plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Prudential plc (PUKN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prudential plc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PUKN use?
Our models discount Prudential plc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prudential plc that is +22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prudential plc (PUKN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prudential plc grew -13.3 % a year. The price currently implies +22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prudential plc (PUKN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prudential plc (+22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.09 %: that much free cash flow Prudential plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prudential plc it is 441.05 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 545.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Prudential plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, PUKN trades above its calculated fair value: price 545.00 MXN, fair value 441.05 MXN, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PUKN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (545.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (441.05 MXN). For Prudential plc the two are 103.95 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prudential plc worth?
The market values Prudential plc at about 680B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 545.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 441.05 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PUKN?
Our models span a range for Prudential plc: cautious scenario 322.14 MXN, base 441.05 MXN, optimistic 667.98 MXN per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 545.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is PUKN from its 52-week high?
Prudential plc trades at 545.00 MXN, at its 52-week high of 545.00 MXN and 18% above the low of 460.00 MXN (as of Jul 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 441.05 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prudential plc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prudential plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 545.00 MXN, calculated fair value 441.05 MXN (−19%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PUKN calculated?
We run Prudential plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 441.05 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Prudential plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 13, 2026 and stands at 545.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 441.05 MXN, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prudential plc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (322.14 MXN to 667.98 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Prudential plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The market capitalisation of Prudential plc is 680B MXN (≈ $37.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Prudential plc is 11.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prudential plc is 1.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Earnings per share at Prudential plc are 45.94 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The dividend yield of Prudential plc is 0.0% (payout 0.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The net margin of Prudential plc is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prudential plc is 20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prudential plc is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prudential plc (PUKN)?
The operating margin of Prudential plc is 45.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Revenue at Prudential plc is growing +18.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prudential plc (PUKN)?
Earnings per share at Prudential plc are growing +30.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Prudential plc (PUKN) carry?
The net debt of Prudential plc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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