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Nkarta Inc (NKTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nkarta Inc $2.66, price $2.76, upside -3.6%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US65487U1088

NI Nkarta Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Nkarta Inc

NKTX · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $2.66 · Fairly valued (−4%)
!Quality 36/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −99.7 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/7)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$38.76 $1.31 Fair Value $2.66 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.31 – $38.76 · fair‑value band $1.76 – $3.33 · the $2.76 price screens above the $2.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Nkarta, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes natural killer cell therapies for cancer and autoimmune disease treatment.

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Nkarta, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes natural killer cell therapies for cancer and autoimmune disease treatment. Its lead product candidate is NKX019, a chimeric antigen receptor-natural killer (CAR NK) targeting the CD19 antigen, which is in Phase 1 clinical trial for the treatment of lupus nephritis; systemic sclerosis; idiopathic inflammatory myopathy; and antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, as well as for systemic lupus erythematosus and myasthenia gravis. The company has a research collaboration agreement with CRISPR Therapeutics AG. Nkarta, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in South San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Nkarta Inc (NKTX) currently trades at $2.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.66, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.76 (bear) to $3.33 (bull), the price of $2.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Nkarta Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $206M · EPS (TTM) $−1.58 · Return on equity −38.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.4% · Revenue (TTM) $385 · Free cash flow −$89.9M · Net debt $36.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −4%, NKTX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.76 Fair Value $2.66 Bull $3.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.18 $2.92 $4.36 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.18 $2.92 $4.36 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 24
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 37
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Nkarta Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 650 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/6 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −20% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.66× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)29 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Nkarta Inc · Fair Value
$2.66 −4%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nkarta Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NKTX

Frequently asked questions

Is Nkarta Inc (NKTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.66 versus a price of $2.76, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NKTX?
Our model-based fair value for Nkarta Inc is $2.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.76.
What is the quality score of NKTX?
Nkarta Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.76, optimistic scenario $3.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nkarta Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.66, about −4% upside versus a price of $2.76 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1.76, optimistic scenario $3.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
Nkarta Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $385 (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nkarta Inc it is $2.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.76. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nkarta Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NKTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.76, fair value $2.66, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NKTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.66). For Nkarta Inc the two are $0.1000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nkarta Inc worth?
The market values Nkarta Inc at about $206M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.76; our models calculate a fair value of $2.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NKTX?
Our models span a range for Nkarta Inc: cautious scenario $1.76, base $2.66, optimistic $3.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nkarta Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −38.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NKTX from its 52-week high?
Nkarta Inc trades at $2.76, about 25% below its 52-week high of $3.67 and 60% above the low of $1.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nkarta Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nkarta Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.76, calculated fair value $2.66 (−4%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NKTX calculated?
We run Nkarta Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nkarta Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.76. Our model-based fair value is $2.66, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nkarta Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($1.76 to $3.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Nkarta Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
The market capitalisation of Nkarta Inc is $206M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
Earnings per share at Nkarta Inc are $−1.58. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nkarta Inc is −38.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nkarta Inc (NKTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nkarta Inc is −29.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Nkarta Inc (NKTX) generate?
The free cash flow of Nkarta Inc is −$89.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nkarta Inc (NKTX) carry?
The net debt of Nkarta Inc is $36.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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