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Netcare Limited (NTC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Netcare Limited ZAR 21.82, price ZAR 17.41, upside +25.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · ZA · ISIN ZAE000011953

NL Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Netcare Limited

NTC · JSE

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value R21.82 · Undervalued (+25.3%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 56/100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R19.22 R11.04 Fair Value R21.82 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R11.04 – R19.22 · fair‑value band R13.19 – R31.02 · the R17.41 price screens below the R21.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Netcare Limited, an investment holding company, operates private hospitals in South Africa. It operates through Hospital and Emergency Services, and Primary Care segments. The Hospital and Emergency Services segment engages in the hospital and pharmacy operations.

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Netcare Limited, an investment holding company, operates private hospitals in South Africa. It operates through Hospital and Emergency Services, and Primary Care segments. The Hospital and Emergency Services segment engages in the hospital and pharmacy operations. Its operations covers its private acute hospital network and day clinics; and non-acute services, including emergency medical services, mental health clinics operation, diagnostics support services, and cancer care services, as well as sells healthcare products. The Primary Care segment offers healthcare services, and employee health and wellness services, as well as administrative services to medical and dental practices. It also engages in the financing, property owning, and pharmaceutical services. It operates through a network of acute hospitals, netcare 911 sites, cancer care centres, haematology centres, renal dialysis facilities, dialysis stations, point of care devices, mental health hospitals, primary health care facilities, and occupational health service contracts, as well as insurance products, and prepaid procedures and healthcare vouchers. Netcare Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Netcare Limited (NTC) currently trades at R17.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R21.82, implying the stock looks roughly 20.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R33.20 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the R17.41 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R6.31, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R13.19 (bear) to R31.02 (bull), the price of R17.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Netcare Limited reported revenue of 26.3B ZAR in FY2025 versus 21.2B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 21.7B ZAC · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) R1.43 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 25%, NTC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R13.19 Fair Value R21.82 Bull R31.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5000 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R9.47 R14.23 R20.12 80
Growth DCF R9.70 R14.04 R19.16 79
Owner Earnings R14.44 R20.93 R28.95 77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R9.47 R14.23 R20.12 80
Owner Earnings R14.44 R20.93 R28.95 77
5Y Revenue Exit R16.83 R29.24 R44.64 71
5Y EBITDA Exit R24.28 R42.48 R62.90 74
5Y P/E Exit R14.14 R24.47 R34.74 70
10Y Revenue Exit R12.86 R22.66 R34.92 65
10Y EBITDA Exit R17.80 R30.83 R47.06 67
10Y P/E Exit R12.00 R19.72 R28.34 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R10.26 R24.02 R30.90 65
PEG = 1.0 R4.11 R5.87 R7.63 57
EPV R15.57 R18.27 R20.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R6.85 R10.65 R14.39 68
DDM Multi-Stage R6.85 R9.57 R12.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R24.90 R33.20 R41.50 63
P/S Multiple R19.24 R25.66 R32.07 58
P/B Multiple R19.24 R25.66 R32.07 55
EV/EBIT R35.21 R48.37 R61.52 66
EV/EBITDA R40.55 R55.48 R70.41 67
EV/Revenue R23.91 R35.98 R48.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R4.71 R6.31 R9.41 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R9.70 R14.04 R19.16 79
Rev-Margin DCF R16.83 R29.30 R42.56 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income R9.11 R10.96 R14.44 76
ROIC Compounder R16.15 R19.87 R23.70 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R18.77 R26.81 R34.85 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.6% vs −1.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.4% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 246 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +22.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.63× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 87.53× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $431.63 $597.97 +39%
Fresenius SE FRE €43.64 €34.49 −21%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 225.00 SAR 109.45 SAR −51%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $257.93 $274.35 +6%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, 5225 8.03 MYR 4.87 MYR −39%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,889 ₹2,908 −67%
Encompass Health Corporation EHC $123.47 $94.47 −23%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS $22.27 $45.84 +106%
DaVita Inc DVA $178.07 $215.81 +21%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥7.91 ¥10.86 +37%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Netcare Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTC

Frequently asked questions

Is Netcare Limited (NTC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R21.82 versus a price of R17.41, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTC?
Our model-based fair value for Netcare Limited is R21.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R17.41.
What is the quality score of NTC?
Netcare Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R21.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R13.19, optimistic scenario R31.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Netcare Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R21.82, about +25% upside versus a price of R17.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R13.19, optimistic scenario R31.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Netcare Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Netcare Limited pay a dividend?
Netcare Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Netcare Limited (NTC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Netcare Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTC use?
Our models discount Netcare Limited at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Netcare Limited that is +28.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Netcare Limited (NTC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Netcare Limited grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies +28.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Netcare Limited (NTC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Netcare Limited (+28.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow Netcare Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Netcare Limited it is R21.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R17.41. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Netcare Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NTC trades below its calculated fair value: price R17.41, fair value R21.82, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R17.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R21.82). For Netcare Limited the two are R4.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Netcare Limited worth?
The market values Netcare Limited at about 21.7B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R17.41; our models calculate a fair value of R21.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTC?
Our models span a range for Netcare Limited: cautious scenario R13.19, base R21.82, optimistic R31.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R17.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTC?
Netcare Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R21.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 87.5, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NTC?
The PEG ratio of Netcare Limited is 87.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Netcare Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTC from its 52-week high?
Netcare Limited trades at R17.41, about 9% below its 52-week high of R19.22 and 23% above the low of R14.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R21.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Netcare Limited?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Netcare Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R17.41, calculated fair value R21.82 (+25%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTC calculated?
We run Netcare Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R21.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Netcare Limited currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R17.41. Our model-based fair value is R21.82, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Netcare Limited right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R13.19 to R31.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Netcare Limited (NTC) come from?
Earnings per share at Netcare Limited grew −3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Netcare Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The market capitalisation of Netcare Limited is 21.7B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Netcare Limited is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Earnings per share at Netcare Limited are R1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The dividend yield of Netcare Limited is 5.3% (payout 65.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The net margin of Netcare Limited is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Netcare Limited is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Netcare Limited is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Netcare Limited (NTC)?
The operating margin of Netcare Limited is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Revenue at Netcare Limited is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Netcare Limited (NTC)?
Earnings per share at Netcare Limited are growing +19.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Netcare Limited (NTC) carry?
The net debt of Netcare Limited is 11.1B ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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