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NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NextCell Pharma AB SEK 0.34, price SEK 1.01, upside -66.4%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · SE · ISIN SE0009723125

NP Thin data Sep 24, 2026

NextCell Pharma AB

NXTCL · ST

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value kr 0.3400 · Strongly overvalued (−66%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +25.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 16.18 kr 0.6680 Fair Value kr 0.3400 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 0.6680 – kr 16.18 · fair‑value band kr 0.2210 – kr 0.4165 · the kr 1.01 price screens above the kr 0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

NextCell Pharma AB, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of novel stromal cell therapies in Sweden. Its lead drug candidate is ProTrans, a cell therapy with mesenchymal stromal cells for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, including type-1 diabetes.

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NextCell Pharma AB, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of novel stromal cell therapies in Sweden. Its lead drug candidate is ProTrans, a cell therapy with mesenchymal stromal cells for the treatment of autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, including type-1 diabetes. The company also operates Cellaviva, a stem cell bank. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Huddinge, Sweden.

Stock analysis

NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL) currently trades at kr 1.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 197.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 0.2210 (bear) to kr 0.4165 (bull), the price of kr 1.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

NextCell Pharma AB reported revenue of 10.9M SEK in FY2025 versus 3.9M SEK in FY2021, a compound +29.3%/yr. Reported net income was −35.1M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 114M SEK (≈ $11.5M) · P/S ratio 12.8 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.4300 · Return on equity −52.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −38.0% · Operating margin −376% · Revenue (TTM) 9.2M SEK · Revenue growth (YoY) −17.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −66%, NXTCL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 0.2210 Fair Value kr 0.3400 Bull kr 0.4165
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.3000 kr 0.4000 kr 0.6000 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.3000 kr 0.4000 kr 0.6000 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +108.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−496.6% (2020) → −328.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NXTCL screens 198% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 654 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −66% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −28% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.17× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.24× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $522.38 $574.62 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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NextCell Pharma AB · Fair Value
kr 0.3400 −198%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NextCell Pharma AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NXTCL

Frequently asked questions

Is NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 0.3400 versus a price of kr 1.01, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXTCL?
Our model-based fair value for NextCell Pharma AB is kr 0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 1.01.
What is the quality score of NXTCL?
NextCell Pharma AB has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.2210, optimistic scenario kr 0.4165. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NextCell Pharma AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 0.3400, about −66% upside versus a price of kr 1.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.2210, optimistic scenario kr 0.4165. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
NextCell Pharma AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.2M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NextCell Pharma AB it is kr 0.3400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 1.01. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NextCell Pharma AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NXTCL trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 1.01, fair value kr 0.3400, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXTCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 1.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 0.3400). For NextCell Pharma AB the two are kr 0.6720 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NextCell Pharma AB worth?
The market values NextCell Pharma AB at about 114M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 1.01; our models calculate a fair value of kr 0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXTCL?
Our models span a range for NextCell Pharma AB: cautious scenario kr 0.2210, base kr 0.3400, optimistic kr 0.4165 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 1.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for NextCell Pharma AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −52.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXTCL from its 52-week high?
NextCell Pharma AB trades at kr 1.01, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 1.69 and 51% above the low of kr 0.6680 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NextCell Pharma AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NextCell Pharma AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 1.01, calculated fair value kr 0.3400 (−66%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXTCL calculated?
We run NextCell Pharma AB through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NextCell Pharma AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 1.01. Our model-based fair value is kr 0.3400, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NextCell Pharma AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.4165). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 0.2210 to kr 0.4165) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NextCell Pharma AB

How large is the market capitalisation of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
The market capitalisation of NextCell Pharma AB is 114M SEK (≈ $11.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NextCell Pharma AB is 12.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
Earnings per share at NextCell Pharma AB are kr −0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NextCell Pharma AB is −52.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NextCell Pharma AB is −38.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
The operating margin of NextCell Pharma AB is −376% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL)?
Revenue at NextCell Pharma AB is growing −17.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL) generate?
The free cash flow of NextCell Pharma AB is −43.0M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NextCell Pharma AB (NXTCL) hold?
NextCell Pharma AB holds more cash than debt, 38.7M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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