Octopus Apollo VCT plc (OAP3) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · GB · Market cap £542M

Below-average quality, and screening another 67% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.1870). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.3058 – £0.4686 · fair‑value band £0.1105 – £0.1870 · the £0.4570 price screens above the £0.1530 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Octopus Apollo VCT plc (OAP3) currently trades at £0.4570, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.1530, implying the stock looks roughly 66.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Octopus Apollo VCT plc generated revenue of £49.3M at a net margin of 57.6%. Revenue grew 60.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £16.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £0.1105 (bear case) to £0.1870 (bull case); at £0.4570, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -67%, OAP3 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (£0.3900) versus Asset-Based (£0.3100). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Octopus Apollo VCT plc is a venture capital trust specializing in development and expansion investments in smaller unquoted companies. The fund invests in small and medium sized companies in the United Kingdom. The fund invests in business-to-business (B2B) software-based companies, technology, IT infrastructure, cybersecurity and sales and marketing.

Full company description

Octopus Apollo VCT plc is a venture capital trust specializing in development and expansion investments in smaller unquoted companies. The fund invests in small and medium sized companies in the United Kingdom. The fund invests in business-to-business (B2B) software-based companies, technology, IT infrastructure, cybersecurity and sales and marketing. It typically invests in companies with debt investment values between £1 million ($1.64 million) and £2 million ($3.29 million). The fund primarily invests in the form of a secured loan using various unquoted investment instruments, including ordinary and preference shares, loan stocks, and convertible securities. It seeks to hold its investments from three to seven years. The fund primarily seeks to exit its investments through trade sales. It seeks to appoint either a director or a formal observer to the board of each investee company. It held uninvested funds in cash and money market funds. The fund seeks to make maximum investment of £1 million ($1.64 million) in a fiscal year in one company and generally no more than 15 percent of the fund's assets, at cost, will be invested in the same company.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Octopus Apollo VCT plc reported revenue of £3.3M in FY2026 versus £33.6M in FY2022, a compound −44.2%/yr. Reported net income was £12.4M in FY2026, compounding −20.8%/yr from FY2022.

OAP3 screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Fondul Proprietatea SA →

Peer Group

Asset Management · 973 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.