Orchestra BioMed Holdings (OBIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $239M
Orchestra BioMed Holdings
OBIO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $4.76 to $0.9400 (−80.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.6200 to $1.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.35 – $22.18 · fair‑value band $0.6200 – $1.18 · the $4.24 price screens above the $0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Orchestra BioMed Holdings (OBIO) currently trades at $4.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $32.7M. Revenue declined 87.3% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $33.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.6200 (bear case) to $1.18 (bull case); at $4.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -78%, OBIO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. operates as a biomedical company in the United States. The company's flagship product candidates include Atrioventricular Interval Modulation, a bioelectronic therapy candidate designed to immediately, substantially, and persistently lower blood pressure; and Virtue Sirolimus AngioInfusion Balloon for the treatment of …
Full company description
Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. operates as a biomedical company in the United States. The company's flagship product candidates include Atrioventricular Interval Modulation, a bioelectronic therapy candidate designed to immediately, substantially, and persistently lower blood pressure; and Virtue Sirolimus AngioInfusion Balloon for the treatment of atherosclerotic artery disease. It also develops Cardiac Neuromodulation Therapy for heart failure, or potential treatment of clinical indications, such as urology or osteoarthritis; and CNT-HF, a bioelectronic product candidate that aims to reduce chronic sympathetic nervous system activity in heart failure. In addition, the company offers FreeHold devices and additional minimally invasive surgery enabling devices; and Pure-Vu system, a medical device to facilitate the cleansing of a poorly prepared gastrointestinal tract during colonoscopy and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy procedures. It has a collaboration agreement with Medtronic, Inc. for the development of AVIM therapy for the treatment of HTN in pacemaker-indicated patients; and a strategic collaboration with Terumo Corporation and Terumo Medical Corporation for the development and commercialization of Virtue SAB for the treatment of coronary and peripheral vascular disease. Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in New Hope, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orchestra BioMed Holdings reported revenue of $33.5M in FY2025 versus −$782K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$52.7M in FY2025.
OBIO screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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