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Oculis Holding AG (OCS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Oculis Holding AG $3.07, price $9.41, upside -67.4%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · Home Switzerland · ISIN CH1242303498

OH Oculis Holding AG logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Oculis Holding AG

OCS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.07 · Strongly overvalued (−67%)
!Quality 21/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −10.6 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$32.65 $6.99 Fair Value $3.07 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.99 – $32.65 · fair‑value band $2.02 – $3.84 · the $9.41 price screens above the $3.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Oculis Holding AG, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops drug candidates to treat ophthalmic, neuro-ophthalmic, and neurological diseases in Switzerland and internationally.

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Oculis Holding AG, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops drug candidates to treat ophthalmic, neuro-ophthalmic, and neurological diseases in Switzerland and internationally. The company's lead product candidate is OCS-01, a topical dexamethasone optireach formulation, which is in Phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of diabetic macular edema; OCS-02, a topical biologic candidate that is in Phase 2b clinical trials for the treatment for dry eye disease; and OCS-05, a disease modifying neuroprotective agent for neurological damage with indications for glaucoma, dry age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy, and acute optic neuritis. Oculis Holding AG was formerly known as Oculis SA and changed its name to Oculis Holding AG in March 2023. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares (OCS) currently trades at $9.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.07, implying the stock looks roughly 206.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.02 (bear) to $3.84 (bull), the price of $9.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares reported revenue of CHF 0 in FY2025 versus CHF 960K in FY2021. Reported net income was −CHF 94.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $678M · EPS (TTM) $−2.13 · Return on equity −52.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −55.0% · Operating margin −10,396% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) −26.7% · Free cash flow −CHF 62.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −67%, OCS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.02 Fair Value $3.07 Bull $3.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.63 $2.18 $3.25 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.63 $2.18 $3.25 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,242.3% (2020) → −10,671.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OCS screens 207% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 654 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −67% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −23% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −27% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.62× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.45× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)69 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $522.38 $574.62 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares · Fair Value
$3.07 −207%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCS

Frequently asked questions

Is Oculis Holding AG (OCS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.07 versus a price of $9.41, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OCS?
Our model-based fair value for Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is $3.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.41.
What is the quality score of OCS?
Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $3.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.07, about −67% upside versus a price of $9.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $3.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares it is $3.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OCS trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.41, fair value $3.07, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.07). For Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares the two are $6.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares worth?
The market values Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares at about $678M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.41; our models calculate a fair value of $3.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCS?
Our models span a range for Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares: cautious scenario $2.02, base $3.07, optimistic $3.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −52.7%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCS from its 52-week high?
Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares trades at $9.41, about 71% below its 52-week high of $32.65 and at the low of $9.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.41, calculated fair value $3.07 (−67%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCS calculated?
We run Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $9.41. Our model-based fair value is $3.07, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.02 to $3.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares

How large is the market capitalisation of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
The market capitalisation of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is $678M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Earnings per share at Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares are $−2.13. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is −52.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is −55.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
The operating margin of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is −10,396% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oculis Holding AG (OCS)?
Revenue at Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is growing −26.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Oculis Holding AG (OCS) generate?
The free cash flow of Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares is −CHF 62.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Oculis Holding AG (OCS) hold?
Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares holds more cash than debt, CHF 79.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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