As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of OEL €25.75, price €232, upside -88.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value €25.75 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 52/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +15.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·5.85% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €181.76 – €305.94 · fair‑value band €19.31 – €32.19 · the €232.00 price screens above the €25.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ADM Hamburg does not have significant business. It intends to focus on the processing of oilseeds, soybeans, food and animal feed, and rapeseed in Germany. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Hamburg, Germany. ADM Hamburg operates as a subsidiary of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company.
Stock analysis
OEL (OEL) currently trades at €232.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €25.75, implying the stock looks roughly 800.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €45.91 per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the €232.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €10.19, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €19.31 (bear) to €32.19 (bull), the price of €232.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OEL reported revenue of €365M in FY2025 versus €434M in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was €918K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €174M · P/E ratio 188.6 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) €1.23 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −89%, OEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€10.19 to €449.58). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €19.31Fair Value €25.75Bull €32.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → 3.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)188.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.54× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OEL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OEL
Frequently asked questions
Is OEL overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €25.75 versus a price of €232.00, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OEL?
Our model-based fair value for OEL is €25.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €232.00.
What is the quality score of OEL?
OEL has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OEL?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €25.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €19.31, optimistic scenario €32.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OEL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €25.75, about −89% upside versus a price of €232.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €19.31, optimistic scenario €32.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OEL?
OEL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €365M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does OEL pay a dividend?
OEL currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of OEL?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OEL it is €25.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €232.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OEL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OEL trades above its calculated fair value: price €232.00, fair value €25.75, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€232.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€25.75). For OEL the two are €206.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OEL worth?
The market values OEL at about €174M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €232.00; our models calculate a fair value of €25.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OEL?
Our models span a range for OEL: cautious scenario €19.31, base €25.75, optimistic €32.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €232.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OEL?
OEL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 188.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €25.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of OEL?
Balance-sheet figures for OEL (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OEL from its 52-week high?
OEL trades at €232.00, about 6% below its 52-week high of €246.00 and 11% above the low of €209.44 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €25.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OEL?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OEL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €232.00, calculated fair value €25.75 (−89%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OEL calculated?
We run OEL through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €25.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. OEL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OEL?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €232.00. Our model-based fair value is €25.75, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OEL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€32.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of OEL
How large is the market capitalisation of OEL?
The market capitalisation of OEL is €174M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OEL?
The price-to-sales ratio of OEL is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OEL?
Earnings per share at OEL are €1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 188.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OEL?
The dividend yield of OEL is 5.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OEL?
The net margin of OEL is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OEL?
The return on equity (ROE) of OEL is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OEL?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OEL is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OEL?
The operating margin of OEL is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OEL?
Revenue at OEL is growing −13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OEL?
Earnings per share at OEL are growing +396% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does OEL generate?
The free cash flow of OEL is −€18.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does OEL carry?
The net debt of OEL is €18.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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