Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Orion Energy Systems Inc $6.89, price $28.42, upside -75.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.55 – $62.00 · fair‑value band $5.38 – $8.40 · the $28.42 price screens above the $6.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Orion Energy Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, research, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, installs, and implements energy management systems for commercial office and retail, area lighting, industrial applications, and government in North America and Germany.
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Orion Energy Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, research, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, installs, and implements energy management systems for commercial office and retail, area lighting, industrial applications, and government in North America and Germany. It operates through three segments: Lighting, Maintenance, and Electric Vehicle (EV). The company offers light emitting diode LED lighting products; construction and engineering services for commercial lighting and energy management system; lighting and electrical system maintenance, repair, and replacement services; and EV charging station and turnkey installation solutions. It also provides LED high bay fixtures and LED troffer retrofits; smart lighting controls, a wireless Internet of Things enabled control solution that provides lighting control options and data intelligence capabilities for building managers; and various LED fixtures for lighting and energy management needs comprising fixtures for agribusinesses, parking lots, retail, mezzanine, outdoor applications, and private label resale. In addition, the company offers lighting-related energy management services, such as site assessment, site field verification, utility incentive and government subsidy management, engineering design, project engineering, project management, facility design commissioning, lighting and electrical system, and recycling. Further, it serves customers directly and through independent sales agencies and distributors, turnkey installation services national, account end-users, federal and state government facilities, regional account end-users, electrical distributors, electrical contractors, and energy service companies. Orion Energy Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Manitowoc, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX) currently trades at $28.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.89, implying the stock looks roughly 312.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.49 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $28.42 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $6.89, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.38 (bear) to $8.40 (bull), the price of $28.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orion Energy Systems Inc reported revenue of $86.3M in FY2026 versus $124M in FY2022, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $39.8M · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8900 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.2% · Operating margin −3.0% · Revenue (TTM) $86.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 257% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −76%, OESX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.38Fair Value $6.89Bull $8.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.9% (2021) → −0.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Orion Energy Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 552 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.40× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.46× · Cheapest 25%
PEG1.62× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orion Energy Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OESX
Frequently asked questions
Is Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.89 versus a price of $28.42, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OESX?
Our model-based fair value for Orion Energy Systems Inc is $6.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.42.
What is the quality score of OESX?
Orion Energy Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.38, optimistic scenario $8.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orion Energy Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.89, about −76% upside versus a price of $28.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.38, optimistic scenario $8.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Orion Energy Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $86.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orion Energy Systems Inc it is $6.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $28.42. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orion Energy Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OESX trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.42, fair value $6.89, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OESX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.89). For Orion Energy Systems Inc the two are $21.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orion Energy Systems Inc worth?
The market values Orion Energy Systems Inc at about $39.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $28.42; our models calculate a fair value of $6.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OESX?
Our models span a range for Orion Energy Systems Inc: cautious scenario $5.38, base $6.89, optimistic $8.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $28.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of OESX?
The PEG ratio of Orion Energy Systems Inc is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orion Energy Systems Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −22.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OESX from its 52-week high?
Orion Energy Systems Inc trades at $28.42, about 7% below its 52-week high of $30.52 and 257% above the low of $7.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orion Energy Systems Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Vertiv Holdings, Prysmian S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orion Energy Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $28.42, calculated fair value $6.89 (−76%), Quality Score 46/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OESX calculated?
We run Orion Energy Systems Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Orion Energy Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $28.42. Our model-based fair value is $6.89, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orion Energy Systems Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Orion Energy Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The market capitalisation of Orion Energy Systems Inc is $39.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orion Energy Systems Inc is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Earnings per share at Orion Energy Systems Inc are $−0.8900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The net margin of Orion Energy Systems Inc is −3.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orion Energy Systems Inc is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orion Energy Systems Inc is −10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
The operating margin of Orion Energy Systems Inc is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Revenue at Orion Energy Systems Inc is growing +23.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)?
Earnings per share at Orion Energy Systems Inc are growing −74.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX) generate?
The free cash flow of Orion Energy Systems Inc is −$1.2B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX) hold?
Orion Energy Systems Inc holds more cash than debt, $3.3B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026