Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc (OLMA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $831M

Below-average quality, and screening another 63% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($2.96 to $5.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.04 – $35.83 · fair‑value band $2.96 – $5.60 · the $12.05 price screens above the $4.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc (OLMA) currently trades at $12.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.48, implying the stock looks roughly 62.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

It earns a return on equity of -42.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $47.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.96 (bear case) to $5.60 (bull case); at $12.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 192% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -63%, OLMA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers.

Full company description

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER degrader, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent, locally advanced, or metastatic ER-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer; OPERA-01, the pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of palazestrant as a monotherapy in second/third-line ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer; and palazestrant with CDK4/6 inhibitors, a phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase alpha (PI3Ka) inhibitor alpelisib, a mechanistic target of rapamycin inhibitor, and a CDK4 inhibitor that is in Phase 1b/2 clinical trial for the treatment of ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. It also develops OP-3136, an orally-available small molecule that potently and selectively inhibits KAT6 which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for patients with breast and other solid tumor cancers. The company was formerly known as CombiThera, Inc. and changed its name to Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in March 2009. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$162M in FY2025.

OLMA screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Peer Group

Biotechnology · 603 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.