Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc $4.48, price $8.83, upside -49.3%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.04 – $35.83 · fair‑value band $2.96 – $5.60 · the $8.83 price screens above the $4.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers.
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Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. The company's lead product candidate is palazestrant, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER degrader, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent, locally advanced, or metastatic ER-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer; OPERA-01, the pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of palazestrant as a monotherapy in second/third-line ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer; and palazestrant with CDK4/6 inhibitors, a phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase alpha (PI3Ka) inhibitor alpelisib, a mechanistic target of rapamycin inhibitor, and a CDK4 inhibitor that is in Phase 1b/2 clinical trial for the treatment of ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. It also develops OP-3136, an orally-available small molecule that potently and selectively inhibits KAT6 which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for patients with breast and other solid tumor cancers. The company was formerly known as CombiThera, Inc. and changed its name to Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in March 2009. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA) currently trades at $8.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.48, implying the stock looks roughly 97.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $2.96 (bear) to $5.60 (bull), the price of $8.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$162M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $831M · EPS (TTM) $−2.03 · Return on equity −42.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −35.3% · Free cash flow −$147M · Net cash $47.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −49%, OLMA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.96Fair Value $4.48Bull $5.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Compare Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside−49% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
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Is Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.48 versus a price of $8.83, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OLMA?
Our model-based fair value for Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc is $4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.83.
What is the quality score of OLMA?
Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $5.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.48, about −49% upside versus a price of $8.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.96, optimistic scenario $5.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $4.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.83. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OLMA trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.83, fair value $4.48, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OLMA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.48). For Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $831M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.83; our models calculate a fair value of $4.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLMA?
Our models span a range for Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $2.96, base $4.48, optimistic $5.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −42.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OLMA from its 52-week high?
Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $8.83, about 75% below its 52-week high of $35.83 and 14% above the low of $7.77 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.83, calculated fair value $4.48 (−49%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OLMA calculated?
We run Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.83. Our model-based fair value is $4.48, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.96 to $5.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
The market capitalisation of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc is $831M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
Earnings per share at Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−2.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc is −42.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc is −35.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA) generate?
The free cash flow of Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc is −$147M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc (OLMA) hold?
Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $47.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026