Outset Medical Inc (OM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Outset Medical Inc $5.13, price $3.09, upside +65.9%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.09 – $881.55 · fair‑value band $3.38 – $6.41 · the $3.09 price screens below the $5.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Outset Medical, Inc., a medical technology company, engages in the development of a hemodialysis system for hemodialysis in the United States.
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Outset Medical, Inc., a medical technology company, engages in the development of a hemodialysis system for hemodialysis in the United States. The company provides Tablo Hemodialysis System, a compact console with integrated water purification, on-demand dialysate production, and software and connectivity capabilities; and manufactures, supports, and distributes for Tablo console, Tablo cartridge, and other consumables. It also offers Tablo Data Ecosystem, including TabloHub, a consumer-facing portal; MyTablo, a patient-facing portal; and TabloDash, an internal data analytics platform. The company was formerly known as Home Dialysis Plus, Ltd. and changed its name to Outset Medical, Inc. in January 2015. Outset Medical, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Outset Medical Inc (OM) currently trades at $3.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.13, implying the stock looks roughly 39.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $3.38 (bear) to $6.41 (bull), the price of $3.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Outset Medical Inc reported revenue of $119M in FY2025 versus $103M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$81.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $57.5M · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $−3.84 · Net margin −68.3% · Return on equity −59.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.8% · Operating margin −49.6% · Revenue (TTM) $118M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 66%, OM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.38Fair Value $5.13Bull $6.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−235.2% (2020) → −55.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 365 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+66% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−16% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−50% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Outset Medical Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OM
Frequently asked questions
Is Outset Medical Inc (OM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.13 versus a price of $3.09, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OM?
Our model-based fair value for Outset Medical Inc is $5.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.09.
What is the quality score of OM?
Outset Medical Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $6.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Outset Medical Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.13, about +66% upside versus a price of $3.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $6.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Outset Medical Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $118M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Outset Medical Inc it is $5.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.09. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Outset Medical Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OM trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.09, fair value $5.13, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.13). For Outset Medical Inc the two are $2.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Outset Medical Inc worth?
The market values Outset Medical Inc at about $57.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.09; our models calculate a fair value of $5.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OM?
Our models span a range for Outset Medical Inc: cautious scenario $3.38, base $5.13, optimistic $6.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Outset Medical Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −59.2%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OM from its 52-week high?
Outset Medical Inc trades at $3.09, about 80% below its 52-week high of $15.81 and at the low of $3.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Outset Medical Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Medtronic plc, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Outset Medical Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.09, calculated fair value $5.13 (+66%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OM calculated?
We run Outset Medical Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Outset Medical Inc currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.09. Our model-based fair value is $5.13, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Outset Medical Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.38 to $6.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Outset Medical Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The market capitalisation of Outset Medical Inc is $57.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Outset Medical Inc is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Earnings per share at Outset Medical Inc are $−3.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The net margin of Outset Medical Inc is −68.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Outset Medical Inc is −59.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Outset Medical Inc is −37.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
The operating margin of Outset Medical Inc is −49.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Outset Medical Inc (OM)?
Revenue at Outset Medical Inc is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Outset Medical Inc (OM) generate?
The free cash flow of Outset Medical Inc is −$47.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Outset Medical Inc (OM) carry?
The net debt of Outset Medical Inc is $66.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026