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BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of BeiGene, Ltd. $281, price $367, upside -23.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US07725L1026

BL BeiGene, Ltd. logo Broad data Sep 27, 2026

BeiGene, Ltd.

ONC · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $280.94 · Overvalued (−23.5%)
✓Quality 70/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +76.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Weak on valuation: 2 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$403.14 $121.11 Fair Value $280.94 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $121.11 – $403.14 · fair‑value band $196.66 – $365.22 · the $367.00 price screens above the $280.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

BeOne Medicines AG, an oncology company, engages in discovering and developing various treatments for cancer patients in the United States, China, Europe, and internationally.

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BeOne Medicines AG, an oncology company, engages in discovering and developing various treatments for cancer patients in the United States, China, Europe, and internationally. The company's commercial stage products include BRUKINSA, a small molecule inhibitor of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) for the treatment of various blood cancers; TEVIMBRA, an anti-PD-1 antibody immunotherapy for the treatment of various solid tumor and blood cancers; SYLVANT for the treatment of adult patients with multicentric castleman disease; BAITUOWEI for patients with BC in premenopausal and perimenopausal women, and cancer; and PARTRUVIX for the treatment of various solid tumors. Its clinical stage products comprise Sonrotoclax BGB-11417, a small molecule Bcl-2 inhibitor; BGB-16673, a BTK targeting chimeric degradation activation compound active against wild type and mutant BTK; BG-60366, an EGFR-targeted CDAC; BG-89894 (SYH2039), a MAT2A Inhibitor; BGB-58067, an MTA-Cooperative PRMT5 Inhibitor; BG-T187 and BG-C0902, an anti-EGFRxMET trispecific antibody; BGB-26808, a HPK-1 Inhibitor; BGB-C354, an anti-B7H3 ADC; Zanidatamab, a bispecific HER2-targeted antibody; BG-C137, an anti-FGFR2b ADC; BGB-53038, a Pan-KRAS Inhibitor; BGB-B2033, an anti-GPC3x4-1BB bispecific antibody; BGB-B3227, an anti-MUC1xCD16A bispecific antibody; BG-C477, an anti-CEAADC; BGB-43395, a CDK4 Inhibitor; BG-68501, a CDK2 Inhibitor; BG-C9074, an anti-B7H4 ADC; BGB-21447, a Bcl-2 Inhibitor; and BGB-45035, an IRAK4-targeted CDAC. It also has various preclinical programs. The company has agreements Amgen, BMS, Bio-Thera, EUSA Pharma, Luye Pharmaceutical, and Novartis. The company was formerly known as BeiGene, Ltd. and changed its name to BeOne Medicines AG in May 2025. BeOne Medicines AG was founded in 2010 and is based in Basel, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) currently trades at $367.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $280.94, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $199.85 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $367.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.79, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $196.66 (bear) to $365.22 (bull), the price of $367.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

BeiGene, Ltd. reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +46.0%/yr. Reported net income was $287M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $41.6B · P/E ratio 61.0 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) $4.43 · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.0% · Operating margin 16.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −23%, ONC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $196.66 Fair Value $280.94 Bull $365.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.30 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $212.13 $312.12 $630.53 74
EPV $69.62 $74.92 $79.57 74
Growth DCF $201.77 $363.26 $627.90 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $212.13 $312.12 $630.53 74
Owner Earnings $84.77 $144.72 $270.56 71
5Y Revenue Exit $120.20 $164.17 $254.84 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $134.71 $193.51 $308.21 72
5Y P/E Exit $123.18 $199.85 $299.41 68
10Y Revenue Exit $146.38 $238.46 $285.18 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $158.92 $269.70 $450.68 64
10Y P/E Exit $150.51 $244.88 $388.59 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $20.56 $143.38 $201.21 61
Lynch FV $74.08 $105.82 $137.57 59
PEG = 1.0 $74.08 $105.82 $137.57 55
EPV $69.62 $74.92 $79.57 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $49.89 $66.52 $83.15 63
P/S Multiple $38.55 $51.40 $64.25 58
P/B Multiple $38.55 $51.40 $64.25 55
EV/EBIT $97.86 $117.88 $137.90 66
EV/EBITDA $102.93 $124.65 $146.36 67
EV/Revenue $80.66 $99.03 $117.41 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $22.98 $30.79 $45.96 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $201.77 $363.26 $627.90 73
Rev-Margin DCF $127.80 $182.64 $298.69 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $36.82 $38.42 $42.07 68
ROIC Compounder $78.96 $100.42 $128.87 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $98.33 $140.47 $182.61 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 26
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+76.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +89.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−536.7% (2020) → 8.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price and +12.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+26.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+14.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+12.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+11.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.7%

ONC screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 645 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −23.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 35.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 61.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 9.55× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.26× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 44.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 46.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)50 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $788.04 $1,275 +62%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$176.95 A$194.65 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%
Incyte Corporation INCY $123.89 $201.35 +63%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BeiGene, Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ONC

Frequently asked questions

Is BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $280.94 versus a price of $367.00, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ONC?
Our model-based fair value for BeiGene, Ltd. is $280.94 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $367.00.
What is the quality score of ONC?
BeiGene, Ltd. has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $280.94 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $196.66, optimistic scenario $365.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BeiGene, Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $280.94, about −23% upside versus a price of $367.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $196.66, optimistic scenario $365.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
BeiGene, Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BeiGene, Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +76.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONC use?
Our models discount BeiGene, Ltd. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BeiGene, Ltd. that is +17.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BeiGene, Ltd. grew +76.9 % a year. The price currently implies +17.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BeiGene, Ltd. (+17.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.26 %: that much free cash flow BeiGene, Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BeiGene, Ltd. it is $280.94 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $367.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BeiGene, Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ONC trades above its calculated fair value: price $367.00, fair value $280.94, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($367.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($280.94). For BeiGene, Ltd. the two are $86.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BeiGene, Ltd. worth?
The market values BeiGene, Ltd. at about $41.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $367.00; our models calculate a fair value of $280.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONC?
Our models span a range for BeiGene, Ltd.: cautious scenario $196.66, base $280.94, optimistic $365.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $367.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONC?
BeiGene, Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 61.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $280.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.6, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 46.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Balance-sheet figures for BeiGene, Ltd. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONC from its 52-week high?
BeiGene, Ltd. trades at $367.00, about 3% below its 52-week high of $377.47 and 41% above the low of $260.27 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $280.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BeiGene, Ltd.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BeiGene, Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $367.00, calculated fair value $280.94 (−23%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONC calculated?
We run BeiGene, Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $280.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. BeiGene, Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $367.00. Our model-based fair value is $280.94, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BeiGene, Ltd. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($196.66 to $365.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of BeiGene, Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The market capitalisation of BeiGene, Ltd. is $41.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BeiGene, Ltd. is 3.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Earnings per share at BeiGene, Ltd. are $4.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 61.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The net margin of BeiGene, Ltd. is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BeiGene, Ltd. is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BeiGene, Ltd. is −14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
The operating margin of BeiGene, Ltd. is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Revenue at BeiGene, Ltd. is growing +35.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC)?
Earnings per share at BeiGene, Ltd. are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BeiGene, Ltd. (ONC) hold?
BeiGene, Ltd. holds more cash than debt, $2.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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