Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS stock TRY 2.66, price TRY 1.82, upside +46.2%, quality 17 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.09 TRY – 7.84 TRY · fair‑value band 1.57 TRY – 3.75 TRY · the 1.82 TRY price screens below the 2.66 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Orçay Ortaköy Çay Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi produces, markets, and sells various tea and related products primarily in Turkey. The company offers packaged, bag, fresh, and white-green tea products. It also sells its products online.
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The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Rize, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) currently trades at 1.82 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.66 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 31.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 8.78 TRY per share, and 12 of the 12 models we run sit above the 1.82 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.99 TRY, and 0 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.57 TRY (bear) to 3.75 TRY (bull), the price of 1.82 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS reported revenue of 662M TRY in FY2025 versus 164M TRY in FY2021, a compound +41.8%/yr. Reported net income was −161M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 437M TRY (≈ $8.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) −1.20 TRY · Net margin −24.4% · Return on equity −14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin 4.2% · Revenue (TTM) 568M TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 46%, ORCAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear1.57 TRYFair Value 2.66 TRYBull3.75 TRY
Price 1.82 TRY · Upside +46.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF6.72 TRY9.03 TRY11.81 TRY82
Growth DCF6.75 TRY8.78 TRY11.08 TRY80
5Y EBITDA Exit5.08 TRY7.07 TRY9.27 TRY76
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF6.72 TRY9.03 TRY11.81 TRY82
5Y Revenue Exit4.48 TRY5.98 TRY7.75 TRY74
5Y EBITDA Exit5.08 TRY7.07 TRY9.27 TRY76
10Y Revenue Exit5.38 TRY6.82 TRY8.54 TRY68
10Y EBITDA Exit5.76 TRY7.46 TRY9.50 TRY70
Earnings-Based
EPV1.85 TRY2.05 TRY2.22 TRY74
Multiples
EV/EBIT1.84 TRY3.13 TRY4.41 TRY64
EV/EBITDA2.16 TRY3.55 TRY4.94 TRY65
EV/Revenue0.7300 TRY1.91 TRY3.10 TRY50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)1.48 TRY1.99 TRY2.97 TRY54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF6.75 TRY8.78 TRY11.08 TRY80
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder1.85 TRY2.05 TRY2.22 TRY72
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.2% (2020) → 11.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+76.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +47.6% a year for the price.
Compare Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+46.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−17.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)96.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORCAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.66 TRY versus a price of 1.82 TRY, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORCAY?
Our model-based fair value for Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 2.66 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.82 TRY.
What is the quality score of ORCAY?
Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.66 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.57 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.75 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.66 TRY, about +46% upside versus a price of 1.82 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.57 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.75 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 568M TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS would have to grow free cash flow by +76.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +63.4 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORCAY use?
Our models discount Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS that is +76.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS grew +63.4 % a year. The price currently implies +76.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (+76.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.72 %: that much free cash flow Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS it is 2.66 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 1.82 TRY. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, ORCAY trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.82 TRY, fair value 2.66 TRY, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORCAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.82 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.66 TRY). For Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS the two are 0.8410 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS at about 437M TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 1.82 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 2.66 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORCAY?
Our models span a range for Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 1.57 TRY, base 2.66 TRY, optimistic 3.75 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 1.82 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −14.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORCAY from its 52-week high?
Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS trades at 1.82 TRY, about 64% below its 52-week high of 5.04 TRY and at the low of 1.82 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.66 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 1.82 TRY, calculated fair value 2.66 TRY (+46%), Quality Score 17/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORCAY calculated?
We run Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.66 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 1.82 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 2.66 TRY, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (17/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (1.57 TRY to 3.75 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The market capitalisation of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 437M TRY (≈ $8.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Earnings per share at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS are −1.20 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The net margin of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is −24.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is −14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
The operating margin of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Revenue at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is growing +96.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY)?
Earnings per share at Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS are growing −92.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS (ORCAY) carry?
The net debt of Orcay Ortakoy Cay Sanayi & Ticaret AS is 486M TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026