Old Republic International Corp (ORI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Old Republic International Corp stock $40.00, price $39.96, upside +0.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.60 – $44.26 · fair‑value band $30.00 – $50.01 · the $39.96 price screens below the $40.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Old Republic International Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides insurance underwriting and related services in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Specialty Insurance and Title Insurance.
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The Specialty Insurance segment provides lines of coverages, such as accident and health, aviation, commercial auto, commercial multi-peril, commercial property, cyber, environmental, excess and surplus, home and auto warranty, automobile extended warranty, general liability, inland marine, travel accident, and workers' compensation, as well as financial indemnity, including directors and officers, errors and omissions, fidelity, and surety coverages.
This segment offers its products to transportation, commercial construction, healthcare, education, retail and wholesale trade, forest products, energy, general manufacturing, and financial services industries.
The Title Insurance segment insures against losses arising out of defects, liens and encumbrances affecting the insured title to real estate purchasers and investors.
This segment also provides escrow closing and construction disbursement services; and real estate information products; national default management services; and various other services pertaining to real estate transfers and loan transactions.
The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Old Republic International Corp (ORI) currently trades at $39.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.00, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $50.10 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $39.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.17, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.00 (bear) to $50.01 (bull), the price of $39.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Old Republic International Corp reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $9.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $936M in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B Mid · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $4.38 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 11.3% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 0%, ORI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.00Fair Value $40.00Bull$50.01
Price $39.96 · Upside +0.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.0M and none bought.
SaleCarolyn MonroeSVP - Title Insurance5× since Nov 14, 2025: 31,710 shares, avg. $40.72$1.3MSep 1, 2026
SaleJeffrey LangeSVPUnderwriting & Distribution14,075 shares at $43.76$615,922Jul 29, 2026
SaleStephen J OberstExecutive Vice President13,125 shares at $43.96$576,975Jul 28, 2026
BuyTherace RischDirector300 shares at $39.90$11,970May 1, 2026
BuyJohn Eric SmithDirector1,135 shares at $43.10$48,917Mar 2, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.3% vs 10.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 13%
2025 sits 66% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Specialty property and casualty focus together with ROE support moderate moat potential for Old Republic, yet thin signals of lasting differentiation leave it exposed in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Fidelity National Financial and First American could use greater scale and acquisitions to compress Old Republic's organic growth and margins in its title insurance segment.
Bull case: Old Republic could leverage its specialty underwriting expertise and ongoing technology investments such as the Qualia system rollout to maintain discipline and capture share even as title competitors consolidate.
Bear case: Sustained pressure from larger title rivals, state-mandated rate cuts and attorney opinion letter alternatives could erode title segment profitability and limit overall earnings growth over several years.
Old Republic runs a specialty-focused property and casualty business alongside title insurance for commercial clients. Its upcoming third-quarter results will show whether underwriting discipline holds up against competitive pressures in these segments. Will steady execution in niche lines outweigh any margin squeeze from broader industry trends?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Old Republic International Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORI
Frequently asked questions
Is Old Republic International Corp (ORI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.00 versus a price of $39.96, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ORI?
Our model-based fair value for Old Republic International Corp is $40.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.96.
What is the quality score of ORI?
Old Republic International Corp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.00, optimistic scenario $50.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Old Republic International Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.00, about +0% upside versus a price of $39.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $30.00, optimistic scenario $50.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Old Republic International Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Old Republic International Corp pay a dividend?
Old Republic International Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Old Republic International Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORI use?
Our models discount Old Republic International Corp at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Old Republic International Corp that is -11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Old Republic International Corp (ORI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Old Republic International Corp grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies -11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Old Republic International Corp (ORI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Old Republic International Corp (-11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.84 %: that much free cash flow Old Republic International Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Old Republic International Corp it is $40.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $39.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Old Republic International Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ORI trades below its calculated fair value: price $39.96, fair value $40.00, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.00). For Old Republic International Corp the two are $0.0400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Old Republic International Corp worth?
The market values Old Republic International Corp at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $39.96; our models calculate a fair value of $40.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORI?
Our models span a range for Old Republic International Corp: cautious scenario $30.00, base $40.00, optimistic $50.01 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $39.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORI?
Old Republic International Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 10.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ORI?
The PEG ratio of Old Republic International Corp is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Old Republic International Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORI from its 52-week high?
Old Republic International Corp trades at $39.96, about 10% below its 52-week high of $44.26 and 11% above the low of $36.08 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Old Republic International Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Old Republic International Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $39.96, calculated fair value $40.00 (+0%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORI calculated?
We run Old Republic International Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Old Republic International Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $39.96. Our model-based fair value is $40.00, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Old Republic International Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Old Republic International Corp (ORI) come from?
Earnings per share at Old Republic International Corp grew +8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Old Republic International Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The market capitalisation of Old Republic International Corp is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Old Republic International Corp is 1.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Earnings per share at Old Republic International Corp are $4.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The dividend yield of Old Republic International Corp is 3.1% (payout 28.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The net margin of Old Republic International Corp is 11.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Old Republic International Corp is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Old Republic International Corp is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
The operating margin of Old Republic International Corp is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Revenue at Old Republic International Corp is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Old Republic International Corp (ORI)?
Earnings per share at Old Republic International Corp are growing −10.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Old Republic International Corp (ORI) carry?
The net debt of Old Republic International Corp is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026