Orexo AB (ORXOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Orexo AB is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7600 – $4.91 · fair‑value band $1.36 – $3.21 · the $1.39 price screens below the $1.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid use disorder; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; Edluar for the treatment of insomnia; and Diabact UBT for the treatment of diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori. The company is developing Izipry for opioid overdose; OX640 to treat anaphylaxis with powder-based epinephrine; OX390 for overdoses caused by a combination of life-threatening illicit drugs; OX125 for opioid overdose with powder-based nalmefene; OX472 for intranasal formulation of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, developed using proprietary AmorphOX technology; and develops thermostable and needle-free mucosal vaccines. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Orexo AB ADR (ORXOY) currently trades at $1.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.94, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.33 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the $1.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2886, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.36 (bear) to $3.21 (bull), the price of $1.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Orexo AB ADR reported revenue of 26.0M SEK in FY2025 versus 565M SEK in FY2021, a compound −53.7%/yr. Reported net income was 639M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $67.1M · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $−1.28 · Net margin 2,929% · Return on equity −411% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.9% · Revenue growth (YoY) −62.1% · EPS growth (YoY) +485%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 39%, ORXOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.36Fair Value $1.94Bull $3.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−65.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−47.7%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → −1,310%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 42.0%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 612 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−38% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−62% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orexo AB ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORXOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Orexo AB (ORXOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.94 versus a price of $1.39, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORXOY?
Our model-based fair value for Orexo AB ADR is $1.94 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.39.
What is the quality score of ORXOY?
Orexo AB ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.94 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.36, optimistic scenario $3.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orexo AB ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.94, about +39% upside versus a price of $1.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.36, optimistic scenario $3.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orexo AB ADR it is $1.94 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.39. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orexo AB ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ORXOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.39, fair value $1.94, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORXOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.94). For Orexo AB ADR the two are $0.5480 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orexo AB ADR worth?
The market values Orexo AB ADR at about $67.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.39; our models calculate a fair value of $1.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORXOY?
Our models span a range for Orexo AB ADR: cautious scenario $1.36, base $1.94, optimistic $3.21 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orexo AB ADR (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −410.9%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORXOY from its 52-week high?
Orexo AB ADR trades at $1.39, about 66% below its 52-week high of $4.05 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orexo AB ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orexo AB ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.39, calculated fair value $1.94 (+39%), Quality Score 52/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORXOY calculated?
We run Orexo AB ADR through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Orexo AB ADR currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Orexo AB ADR right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1.36 to $3.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Orexo AB ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
The market capitalisation of Orexo AB ADR is $67.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orexo AB ADR is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Earnings per share at Orexo AB ADR are $−1.28. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
The net margin of Orexo AB ADR is 2,929% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orexo AB ADR is −411% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orexo AB ADR is −29.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Revenue at Orexo AB ADR is growing −62.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −65.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orexo AB (ORXOY)?
Earnings per share at Orexo AB ADR are growing +485% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orexo AB (ORXOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Orexo AB ADR is −195M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orexo AB (ORXOY) carry?
The net debt of Orexo AB ADR is 337M SEK (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026