Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. PLN 7.40, price PLN 4.77, upside +55.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.11 PLN – 7.70 PLN · fair‑value band 5.63 PLN – 9.81 PLN · the 4.77 PLN price screens below the 7.40 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchów S.A. produces and sells sweets and jelly candies in Poland and internationally. The company offers jelly candy, marshmallow, cool beans under the BEBETO brand name; Opolanki and refined truffles under the ODRA brand; and sweets full of surprises under the COSBY brand name.
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Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchów S.A. produces and sells sweets and jelly candies in Poland and internationally. The company offers jelly candy, marshmallow, cool beans under the BEBETO brand name; Opolanki and refined truffles under the ODRA brand; and sweets full of surprises under the COSBY brand name. It also provides bars, milk, haberdashery, jelly, halva, crisps, and multi-grain snacks. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Otmuchów, Poland. Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchów S.A. is a subsidiary of Tornellon Investments Spolka Z Ograniczona Odpowiedzialnoscia.
Stock analysis
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) currently trades at 4.77 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.40 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 35.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 7.85 PLN per share, and 19 of the 22 models we run sit above the 4.77 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 2.93 PLN, and 3 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 5.63 PLN (bear) to 9.81 PLN (bull), the price of 4.77 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. reported revenue of 272M PLN in FY2025 versus 249M PLN in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 11.3M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 145M PLN (≈ $37.6M) · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) 0.2100 PLN · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 55%, OTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5.63 PLNFair Value 7.40 PLNBull 9.81 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1542 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price.
Compare Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.40 PLN versus a price of 4.77 PLN, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTM?
Our model-based fair value for Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 7.40 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.77 PLN.
What is the quality score of OTM?
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.40 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.63 PLN, optimistic scenario 9.81 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.40 PLN, about +55% upside versus a price of 4.77 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 5.63 PLN, optimistic scenario 9.81 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 260M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTM use?
Our models discount Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. that is -1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies -1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (-1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.68 %: that much free cash flow Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. it is 7.40 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4.77 PLN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OTM trades below its calculated fair value: price 4.77 PLN, fair value 7.40 PLN, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.77 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.40 PLN). For Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. the two are 2.63 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. worth?
The market values Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. at about 145M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4.77 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 7.40 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTM?
Our models span a range for Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A.: cautious scenario 5.63 PLN, base 7.40 PLN, optimistic 9.81 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4.77 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTM?
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.40 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTM from its 52-week high?
Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. trades at 4.77 PLN, about 19% below its 52-week high of 5.86 PLN and 9% above the low of 4.38 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.40 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4.77 PLN, calculated fair value 7.40 PLN (+55%), Quality Score 56/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTM calculated?
We run Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.40 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 4.77 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 7.40 PLN, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (5.63 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) come from?
Earnings per share at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. grew −3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.3 %, EBIT margin +7.0 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The market capitalisation of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 145M PLN (≈ $37.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Earnings per share at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. are 0.2100 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The net margin of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
The operating margin of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Revenue at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is growing −16.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM)?
Earnings per share at Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. are growing −70.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. (OTM) carry?
The net debt of Zaklady Przemyslu Cukierniczego Otmuchow S.A. is 2.0M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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